Barring an immediate & substantive deterioration in hard data (unemployment, retail sales, job creation, GDP growth, etc.), the Fed is still months away from cutting.

The June 2025 meeting is the earliest that I'm willing to entertain... because that's what the bond market is telling me.

Personally, I don't expect to see this deterioration.

I do expect to see more evidence of steady disinflation.

But the key word here is "steady". It likely won't be fast enough to justify a cut (from the Fed's eyes) in May, particularly if hard data remains resilient & dynamic, as I expect.

This combination makes it much more likely for the Fed to announce a further tapering of QT in May or June, and then the first cut in the meeting after that (so either June or July, depending on the QT taper announcement).

If/when the data does deteriorate, the bond market will promptly reflect that deterioration and the repricing of rate cuts (in other words, the 3M yield will fall below 4%).

Until we have evidence of that, no cuts for at least 2 months.

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