Does ETH still have a chance? Analyzing ETH's trend from macro and on-chain data (also applicable to altcoin season)
Although I believe that $ETH still has a chance, that opportunity may not be right now, but rather during two possible phases of monetary easing:
In the mid-phase of monetary easing, interest rates decrease, inflation declines, and investor risk appetite increases, provided that there is no economic recession.
In the later phase or tail end of monetary easing, interest rates have nearly bottomed out, inflation has returned to below 2% or even lower, and investor risk appetite increases, ideally after an economic recession has occurred.
From both macro and on-chain data perspectives, ETH is currently in a bottom range. On-chain data indicates that prices below $1,500 present a good buying opportunity, while macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to a recession, which does not rule out the possibility of ETH continuing to decline.
On-chain data also shows a trend of increasing ETH holdings among retail investors, whales, and super whales. Although this trend is not as pronounced as with $BTC, it is evident that more on-chain investors are buying ETH.
Overall, ETH is very similar to the Russell 2000, both requiring high liquidity pairing. Therefore, during periods of monetary tightening, there may not be sufficient liquidity available, leading to slow price increases.
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