16 Crypto Giants Make Forbes Billionaires List! Tonight's ADP Employment Data Is Coming, Can BTC's Rebound Continue?

 Macro Interpretation: The global financial market is shrouded in the shadow of the "reciprocal tariffs" being brewed by the Trump administration. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee recently warned that tariff policies could lead to a dual contraction in consumption and investment. If retaliatory tariffs and intermediate goods taxation are added, the impact may exceed the "temporary" scope predicted by traditional theoretical models. Barclays Bank pointed out that even if Asian countries or regions are not officially recognized as currency manipulators, the U.S. government may still use this as leverage to reshape the international trade landscape through tariff policies. This policy uncertainty is prompting market participants to reassess the risk asset allocation logic— the synchronized rebound of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies before the tariff announcement reflects investors' survival wisdom in voting with their feet on the eve of a storm.

In this policy game, the crypto market has shown unique resilience. Bitcoin completed an "air refueling" in the last week of March, with its price rebounding strongly from $82,000 to a high of $85,579, resonating technically with the Nasdaq index's 0.87% increase. On-chain data shows that SOL experienced significant profit-taking around $147, but the support level in the $123-$144 range is strengthening, suggesting that this turnover of chips may indicate a shift in the altcoin market from chaotic speculation to value accumulation. Notably, the series of collapses of multiple meme coins on the BNB chain acts like cold water thrown on speculative frenzy, forcing investors to reassess project fundamentals.

The undercurrents of institutional funds are reshaping the crypto market landscape. Grayscale's submission of a cryptocurrency index ETF application resonates with The ETF Store president's prediction of "approval by the end of the year," and this regulatory thaw may open compliant entry channels for traditional capital. The collective appearance of 16 crypto giants on Forbes' latest billionaires list mirrors the industry's development history—Zhao Changpeng's $63 billion fortune is backed by the business empire established by Binance in 83 countries worldwide; Strategy's Michael Saylor uses his $7.4 billion wealth to prove the feasibility of the "public company hoarding coins" strategy. The wealth map of these business leaders vividly illustrates the penetration of the crypto economy into the mainstream financial system.

However, the mining sector is experiencing a stark contrast. Data from JPMorgan shows that the market value of 14 listed mining companies evaporated by $6 billion in March, marking the worst monthly performance on record. This predicament stands in eerie contrast to the new highs in Bitcoin prices, suggesting that the arms race in computing power is squeezing profit margins for mining companies. Interestingly, mining companies with high-performance computing businesses have underperformed pure Bitcoin miners for two consecutive months, which may indicate that diversified strategies like AI computing power leasing have yet to form an effective moat. When "the roar of mining machines dances with the downward curve of stock prices," industry reshuffling has become inevitable.

The intertwining of macro data and policy expectations has led the market to seek certainty amid the fog. The ADP data for March, set to be released tonight, is predicted by institutions to show an increase of 115,000 jobs, serving as a weight on the Federal Reserve's policy balance. If the data continues the weak trend of February, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in June—this expectation of a shift in monetary policy is a crucial logic supporting risk assets. The potential risk of the U.S. Treasury justifying tariffs through currency intervention looms like the sword of Damocles, ready to sever the market's fragile optimism at any moment.

From a historical perspective, Bitcoin is writing a new narrative amid multiple games. As tariff policies may reshape international trade flows, as ETF approvals open institutional floodgates, and as miners' predicaments force technological innovation, this "stress test" highlights the anti-fragility of crypto assets. Just as surfers always find a point to ride the wave in the trough, the repeated tug-of-war around the $85,000 mark for Bitcoin may be the breeding ground for a new value consensus. After all, in an era of monetary policy normalization and geopolitical restructuring, the existence of decentralized assets itself is the ultimate answer to combating uncertainty.

Data Analysis:

Coinank data shows that the holdings of large TRUMP addresses have recently changed significantly. TRUMP will unlock 40 million tokens on April 18, accounting for 20% of the current circulating supply, with a total value of approximately $413.2 million at current prices.

We believe that the upcoming unlocking of TRUMP tokens may become a key node for testing the pressure resistance of meme coins. The short-term liquidity shock is significant: based on current market value, the potential selling pressure of $413.2 million is equivalent to 3.8 times its 30-day average trading volume. If there is a lack of supporting funds, price volatility may surge. On-chain data shows that the top ten addresses hold 68% of the circulating supply, and the centralized holding structure exacerbates the risk of concentrated selling.

The structural contradiction lies in the fact that meme coins typically rely on community consensus rather than practical value, and large-scale unlocking may shake holders' confidence. Similar historical events (such as the SHIB unlocking in 2021) have triggered short-term pullbacks of over 40%. However, the uniqueness of TRUMP lies in its binding political narrative, which may attract some speculative funds to hedge risks as the U.S. election cycle approaches, forming a buffer for the long-short game.

Potential transmission paths are diverging: if the project party smooths the release through mechanisms like lock-up extensions and staking rewards, or creates a new narrative leveraging election hotspots, it may turn the crisis into an opportunity for liquidity activation; conversely, if whales sell off and there is a lack of community response, it may trigger a "death spiral"—price declines lead to the failure of market cap management, further weakening consensus. Investors need to pay close attention to changes in on-chain chip distribution and social media sentiment indicators before and after the unlocking to capture subtle shifts in market expectations.

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