BTC and ETH have recorded the worst returns in the first quarter over the past seven years, but ETF holders have an average unrealized gain of 17%.
Macro Interpretation: As the "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration approaches its countdown, global financial markets are filled with uncertainty. The Chicago PMI exceeded expectations, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish trades, with the S&P 500 ultimately rising 0.55% in a performance that seemed elegant but was actually perilous. This policy fog not only shrouds traditional markets but also has cryptocurrency investors holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Bitcoin briefly touched a high of $84,000 during U.S. stock trading before retreating to around $82,265, and then rebounding again to around $84.4, perfectly illustrating the dual personality of risk assets and safe-haven assets.
From a macro perspective, the market is undergoing a test of extremes. On one hand, the Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to a six-year low of 7.53%, revealing the steadfast belief of long-term holders voting with their feet. On the other hand, the average unrealized gain level of 17% for spot Bitcoin ETF holders hangs over the market like the sword of Damocles—potentially a cornerstone of value consensus or a hidden risk for profit-taking. This contradictory situation is vividly displayed in Coinbase's 31% quarterly plunge, with the performance of this crypto exchange giant even worse than during the FTX collapse, making it a leading indicator of the bear market.
Technical analysts seek answers from historical cycles. Dragonfly Capital points out that the current pervasive pessimism resonates highly with the 2018/2019 cycle, evoking a sense of déjà vu reminiscent of the "seven-year itch" in the crypto market. Fidelity Digital Assets' research report injects a dose of optimism into the market, suggesting that Bitcoin may be replicating the buildup curve before breaking through $20,000 at the end of 2020, according to its "acceleration phase" theory. This interplay between technical and fundamental aspects resembles the process of Sisyphus pushing a boulder uphill, filled with both despair and hope.
The crypto world has never stopped creating dramatic narratives. Arthur Hayes' bold claim of "Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end" stands in stark contrast to the recent seven-year worst returns of -11.82% for BTC and -45.41% for ETH in the first quarter. This BitMEX co-founder's predictive model is based on an accurate forecast of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, as he firmly believes that the flood of fiat liquidity will eventually support the crypto ark. This optimism appears particularly tragic in the face of $1.63 billion in quarterly hacker losses—losses from security vulnerabilities in Q1 2025 surged 131% year-on-year, completing the juxtaposition of cryptocurrency's "original sin" and "redemption" at this moment.
Market participants are seeking a balance point amid multiple games. The cold data showing a net outflow of $745 million from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in March sharply contrasts with BlackRock's IBIT, which attracted $261 million in inflows, revealing a divergence in capital perception of the same asset among institutions. Interestingly, as traditional financial giants begin to perform "double kills" in the market, on-chain data shows that miners and long-term holders are quietly building a bottom, suggesting that this seemingly deceptive maneuver may be the most captivating narrative logic in the crypto market.
The crypto market is experiencing growing pains before a rebirth. The macro disturbances brought by Trump's tariff policy, strategic divergences among institutional investors, ongoing threats from security vulnerabilities, and the self-verifying nature of technological cycles are weaving a complex equation that is reshaping the valuation logic of digital assets. For savvy investors, the current market volatility may represent a golden window for positioning for alpha returns. After all, in the crypto world, the adage "be greedy when others are fearful" often shines brightest in the darkest moments. Under the grand narrative of a declining fiat system and the accelerated rise of digital civilization, Bitcoin may complete a new round of value anchoring amid the storm, making this game concerning the future of finance more tumultuous than any sci-fi script.
According to CoinAnk AI intelligent analysis, the BTC 4H market analysis report is as follows:
Main support level: 81,811.54 USDT
Main resistance level: 84,457.33 USDT
Current trend: Slightly bullish
Detailed explanation:
Technical indicators summary:
Moving average system: MA5=82,940.90, MA10=82,598.89, MA20=82,700.79, MA120=84,331.23. The current price is above MA5 and MA10 but below MA120, indicating a short-term bullish arrangement, but the long-term trend has not been fully confirmed.
MACD: DIF=-501.00, DEA=-738.53, histogram=237.53. The MACD histogram is above the zero axis and continues to expand, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
BOLL: Upper band=83,783.43, middle band=82,700.78, lower band=81,618.13. The current price is close to the upper band, indicating some upward pressure, but has not yet broken through.
RSI: RSI6=62.71, RSI12=51.34, RSI14=49.67, RSI24=47.05. RSI6 is close to the overbought area, but other period RSIs remain in the neutral zone, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure.
KDJ: K=69.34, D=58.16, J=91.70. The KDJ indicator shows a golden cross, and the J value is high, indicating strong bullish momentum in the short term.
Indicator data:
Funding rate: 0.00320100%. The funding rate is in the neutral zone, with no clear bullish or bearish sentiment.
Volume changes: Recent trading volume has increased, especially during price rises, indicating enhanced bullish momentum.
Capital flow data: 24-hour contract net inflow of 780,551,972.54 USDT, indicating significant inflow of bullish funds, but spot market net inflow of 33,074,711.88 USDT shows relatively low inflow in the spot market.
Analysis results
Direction: Cautiously bullish
Entry timing: The current price is close to the BOLL upper band; it is recommended to wait for a price pullback to the support level before entering.
Stop-loss setting: Stop-loss at approximately 3.8%.
Target price: Target price set at 87,000 USDT.
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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