The key focus we need to pay attention to remains the advancement of the formal Federal Reserve Act and the progress of state Bitcoin reserve laws.
Written by: Alex Xu
Recently, crypto and AI mogul David Sacks released a tweet stating that Trump signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which mainly includes:
The reserve will be based on existing BTC controlled by the federal government, and any subsequently seized BTC will also enter this reserve.
These BTC will not be sold (at least during Trump's term).
The government will not create a separate budget (meaning "budget-neutral" as stated in the original text) to purchase BTC.
Trump has fulfilled his promise.
How should we interpret the above news? I believe there are several key points:
The "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is not the same as the "Strategic Federal Reserve" bill promoted by Senator Cythia Lummis at the federal level. The former can be directly controlled by the government, while the latter requires congressional legislation; the former does not have a separate budget for purchasing BTC (any increase would require congressional approval), while the latter would provide a separate budget for purchasing BTC, with a goal of buying 1 million BTC over five years. The budget source may come from a reassessment of the value of the existing U.S. gold reserves, thereby expanding the Federal Reserve's asset count and providing a budget for the Treasury to purchase BTC. David Sacks' statement that "the government will not acquire other assets for reserve assets" does not mean that the public's impression of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve suddenly becomes something that relies solely on seizures without spending money to purchase BTC.
Does the above executive order indicate that Trump has fulfilled his "promise"? At the executive level, yes. Because what Trump can do at the executive level is limited, he has essentially done what he said during the campaign regarding establishing a BTC strategic reserve (at the executive level), forming a dedicated crypto advisory committee, firing or pushing out SEC former chairman Gensler, and relaxing industry regulations. However, at the overall level, the promise has not been fully realized, as Trump explicitly stated during the campaign that he would also build a federal strategic reserve to purchase more BTC, which is also part of the bill promoted by Senator Cythia Lummis in Congress.
Will Trump announce more favorable news regarding BTC reserves or other matters? It is possible, as he is the keynote speaker at the White House crypto summit held tomorrow morning Beijing time. However, as mentioned earlier, there is not much more he can do for BTC at the executive level. The most extreme measure would be to order the Treasury to directly use the Exchange Stabilization Fund to purchase BTC. This fund already exists and does not require separate congressional approval; its operational goal is to "stabilize the dollar exchange rate." However, as I previously discussed in "A Brief Analysis of Trump's Promotion of SOL XRP ADA National Reserves," Trump's style is to leverage small actions for big news, using low-cost means to create significant headlines. He is unlikely to invest significant effort into actions that face substantial resistance without high returns and only high risks. Although using the Exchange Stabilization Fund to purchase BTC theoretically falls within his executive powers, this concrete action is too extreme, and the subsequent troubles could interfere with Senator Cythia Lummis' promotion of the bill in Congress (as the two actions overlap).
It is important to note that Trump's "madman persona" has become more pronounced since he took office. Externally, he aims to appear reckless, hoping to make diplomatic opponents believe he is a madman who dares to do anything, thereby gaining political benefits through intimidation. Internally, he continuously tests various executive actions to try to expand the boundaries of presidential power, including but not limited to massive layoffs and forced government employee shutdowns through DOGE, and withholding government budgets approved by Congress. He is actively practicing the "one-dollar presidential route," supported by a cabinet that highly obeys him. Additionally, last July, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that the president "enjoys absolute immunity from criminal prosecution when exercising executive power in the public interest" has given him greater confidence. Therefore, it is also possible that Trump, when facing significant backlash from crypto public opinion, may backtrack and offer more exaggerated favorable promises, but the feasibility of these promises is also questionable.
Although the trend of Bitcoin entering national finance has faced obstacles, it is still slowly advancing. The key focus we need to pay attention to remains the advancement of the formal Federal Reserve Act and the progress of state Bitcoin reserve laws. For more details, see "2.26 Web3 Investment Memo, Discussing Key Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Bill."
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