HTX DeepThink focuses on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the cryptocurrency industry, helping readers find order in the chaos of the unpredictable crypto world.

Trump temporarily sets aside the tariff stick, Bitcoin surges to $95,000, but the outlook for trade negotiations remains unclear; key data is about to be released, and early May may be an important liquidity window. This issue's guest, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), will help you analyze the macro situation and delve into the trends and undercurrents of the crypto market.

Trump's Second Hundred Days New Policy: Delivering Good News, Renewed Momentum

The Trump administration has quickly implemented several crypto-friendly policies within its first hundred days, influencing some traditional companies to become first-time Bitcoin buyers. These include improving the regulatory framework for stablecoins, appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, and reducing government spending through DOGE. Moving forward, the White House will focus on trade agreement negotiations and promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, while advancing the "Beautiful Big Bill" which includes "massive tax cuts, strong border security, and deregulation," as well as implementing the FIT21 bill in the Senate to provide a clear framework for digital asset regulation.

Market Review from Last Week: Decoupling and Driving Factors

Last week, the crypto market initially decoupled from the U.S. stock market, primarily boosted by the continued weakening of the dollar index, combined with traditional companies and financial institutions accelerating their purchases of crypto assets. The issuance of on-chain stablecoins continued to rise, and Bitcoin ETFs recorded consecutive net inflows, pushing Bitcoin's price to briefly reach $88,000. Subsequently, comments from Trump and Bessent regarding tariff policies softened, further boosting market sentiment to $95,000. However, while discussions about trade agreements released positive signals, reaching a real agreement will still take months, and there remain strong hawkish forces within the Trump administration regarding tariffs, which will significantly impact future trends and pose major uncertainties.

Key Data Preview: A Watershed for Short- and Medium-Term Volatility

This week will see the release of the initial U.S. GDP for the first quarter and the core PCE price index (8:30 PM Beijing time on April 30), as well as April's non-farm employment and unemployment rate data (8:30 PM Beijing time on May 2). Investors need to pay attention to hedging and risk avoidance around the data release.

The market expects GDP growth to decline from last year's 2.4% to 0.2%–0.4%, with the core PCE expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, and non-farm payrolls potentially decreasing from 228,000 to 130,000, while the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. If the overall data shows weak growth but cooling inflation, it will strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts mid-year, driving risk assets to rise simultaneously; if the data exceeds expectations across the board, it may delay rate cuts or reignite concerns about rate hikes, suppressing the crypto market in the short term; in extreme cases, if weak GDP growth accompanies a collapse in employment, it could trigger panic selling, followed by a recovery due to rate cut expectations; if inflation surges while growth stagnates, it faces the risk of stagflation.

Federal Reserve Holds Steady: Technical Ability to Cut Rates but Choosing Not To for "Self-Preservation"

As of now, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance is approximately $3.3 trillion, with overnight reverse repos at about $94 billion, and the Treasury's general account also at a high level, technically allowing for further monetary easing through rate cuts. However, in fiscal year 2024, the Fed will pay a total of $226.8 billion in interest on reserves and reverse repos, while only earning $158.8 billion from Treasury bonds and MBS, resulting in a net loss of $77.5 billion for the year; if it were to cut rates by 0.3 percentage points, the $6.7 trillion asset portfolio would see an annual income reduction of about $20 billion, further expanding losses and significantly reducing remittances to the Treasury. Therefore, the Fed has chosen to maintain stable interest rates to preserve its financial sustainability and political independence.

Liquidity Window and Summer Risks: Optimal Timing for Positioning

If this week's data meets expectations, a liquidity window may emerge in early May, with funds potentially flowing back into the crypto market. However, after the debt ceiling is approved, the Treasury is expected to replenish the TGA to $50–60 billion through new debt issuance between June and July, withdrawing an equivalent amount of liquidity from the market, which will raise short-term interest rates and pressure risk assets. Historical data shows that after each significant TGA replenishment, Bitcoin and the overall crypto market tend to drop by about 5%–10% in the following weeks. Amid the interplay of policy dividends and tightening liquidity, project teams and investors need to seize the window period in early May while preparing for hedging against the summer TGA replenishment.

In the context of intertwining policy factors and liquidity changes, short-term operations should focus on key data points and liquidity windows; in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the implementation process of regulatory frameworks like FIT21 and the further expansion of stablecoin applications. Additionally, continuous tracking of traditional institutional funds' accelerated penetration into Bitcoin (BTC) and other assets (such as Solana) is necessary.

HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it represent any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.

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