
Phyrex|Mar 07, 2025 13:14
Before the non farm payroll, the non farm payroll data is always very uncertain, and it cannot be ruled out that a pullback from the sky is a risk aversion sentiment. However, in reality, the current non farm payroll data has little to do with the Federal Reserve's decision in March. But the market will still serve as the basis for measuring the Federal Reserve's March dot matrix, which is not wrong.
Overall, if it is to increase the frequency of interest rate cuts, an increase in unemployment rate is a good thing. In the past six months, the unemployment rate has reached a maximum of 4.2%, while the Federal Reserve considers the neutral unemployment rate to be 4.3%. Therefore, the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the probability of increasing the frequency of interest rate cuts. This is a fact.
But a significant increase in unemployment will lead the United States into the expectation of a recession, which is even more terrifying than inflation. If it really enters a recession, it will be the last drop.
If the unemployment rate continues to decline, it means that the US economy continues to be strong, which may not necessarily be a bad thing. After all, the key to reducing inflation is inflation data. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, a slight increase or maintenance of the unemployment rate is a good thing.
Then there is non farm employment, the higher this data, the better the US economy. The end of the month indicates that the economy is not very prosperous, and DOGE's layoffs are actually a reduction of this data. Therefore, from the current perspective, the higher the non farm employment, the better the market, after all, economic stability.
Finally, there's not much to say about salary. The higher it is, the more favorable it is for the economy, and the lower it is, the less favorable it is for the economy. Therefore, overall, the current market expectations are good data, and meeting expectations is good.
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