I have high conviction that BTC will make a new ATH sometime between Q3 this year and Q1 2026. Yes, it's painful now - but I think people are missing the bigger picture, and the eventual rally will be bigger than ever. My rationale: • Trump's plan is to cause short-term pain now as he tries to send the dollar/yields lower (we're currently in the process of the market digesting the new baseline) • Mid term case is tariffs will force domestic absorption of treasuries to offset the reduction in foreign buying (BTC is extremely sensitive to global liquidity) • The market will likely bottom on recession fears (it's a scary word and markets hate uncertainty), but by the time it officially comes around the market will already be looking at the FED's response • The FED will eventually be forced to cut rates, paving the way for QE potentially in 2026 (remember markets are forward looking, and imo QE is arguably less important this year than other liquidity measures - they have options: repo ops, BTFP, buying treasuries etc.) • As for alts, the top quality stuff will likely follow BTC's trajectory and find a floor before recovering - bad stuff will die out, and "alt season" (whatever that looks like next time) will likely only occur once BTC has peaked or is close to a peak (as is almost always the case). Also plenty of money to be made on the way up if you're savvy and identify the top trends. • Remember, in tighter liquidity environments, market participants tend to consolidate around higher quality assets (BTC first), before rotating down the risk curve once confidence and liquidity improve - you can front run this slightly, but not so much that you run the risk of underperforming for months in the lead up (bad R/R). As for the short term, anything can happen. Trying to forecast anything in the 1-12 week range is extremely difficult right now, and is largely a fools game. There are definitely bearish arguments to be made too, which I deliberately left out here to emphasise my long-term thesis, but i may do a follow up post later outlining some of the risks. Overall, I'm playing a much longer-term game with my positioning: DCAing BTC, select equities that are hit hard by the trade war fears but still have good fundamentals, and quality alts if the technicals align (many setups don't yet, but they will over the coming months). It's not easy to be patient, but it's what is required right now. Instead of tinkering around too much with my portfolio, and chopping myself up, I'm being super strategic and spending more time on other interesting things like AI-implementation into my personal life/business. So when crazy-mode comes back I'll be even more optimised and efficient. But I definitely am looking at increasing risk exposure over the coming weeks/months as I have conviction that these entires will look pretty good in hindsight come Q1 next year.