It is expected that there will be a new low in reverse repo RRP, as previously discussed in https:// (((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1877149655240499428? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate for reverse repo at its December meeting with the intention of driving funds out of reverse repo. Trump's liquidity has been declining since he took office two weeks ago. The core reason has been discussed with @ _D_Y_A_N before: after the debt ceiling was reached in late January, the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance should increase spending, but Trump froze the spending of various departments in the name of review, which led to the rise of the balance of the Ministry of Finance's account from more than 660 billion dollars in mid January to more than 830 billion dollars now, leading to the decline of the scale of bank reserves by more than 200 billion dollars. Previously, https:// (((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1876565512764948666? The expected liquidity recovery during the window period from reaching the debt ceiling to reaching the new debt ceiling, as expected by s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, has not been achieved. Judging from Besent's recent statements, there is still no intention of rushing to communicate with Congress about a new debt ceiling agreement. In addition, Trump recently wants to promote a one-time big bill on border immigration, tariffs, tax cuts and so on in the Congress, which really means putting the bullet of the Ministry of Finance at the end. The current overall balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has shrunk to 6.8 trillion yuan, which is lower than the previous New York Fed// (((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1869014379452416095? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A estimates that the upper limit of the target of shrinking the balance sheet by 6-6.5 trillion US dollars is still at the level of 300 billion US dollars, and it will take about five months to be reduced. According to the semi annual monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve a few days ago, the Fed plans to stop reducing its balance sheet when the reserve balance is slightly higher than what it considers to be consistent with sufficient reserves. The current reserve level has begun to approach the upper limit of the sufficient reserve level, and it is estimated that it will enter the range of restructuring reserves in the second quarter. Of course, during this period, it also depends on when the Ministry of Finance's TGA account starts spending money, which will change the size of the reserve fund. This year is a stage where the overall broad liquidity in the United States has shifted from excess to sufficient, and it is very likely to stop in the second quarter. It is just uncertain whether the contract opportunity to stop shrinking the balance sheet will be a repeat of the "repo crisis" in September 19 or the "treasury bond bond panic" in October 23?