Trump inauguration policy highlights, 100 executive orders? In the morning, the leverage of the currency market rebounded in the afternoon, which seemed to reach another key point. Today, when the US stock market did not open, it seemed that only the currency market could immediately reflect the uncertainty of Trump's inauguration. I believe that all markets are watching the release of a series of administrative orders after Trump's inauguration. In a two-hour meeting with Senate Republicans two days ago, Trump said that he had prepared about 100 executive orders and planned to sign them on the first day of inauguration on January 20, 2025. These administrative orders may involve multiple areas such as tariffs, border immigration, deregulation, industrial policies, and the cryptocurrency sector. Focus on the following areas: 1. Tariff trade The earliest Trump fund commitment in the tariff field worried the market very much. The "only tariff increase on key commodities" or "gradual tariff increase" that came out in the last two weeks and the new finance minister's speech in the Senate hearing last week https:// ((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1880082232939016265? The argument of cautious sanctions mentioned in s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has made the market expect a relaxed tariff policy. Baseline scenario: It is expected that Trump will quickly announce tariff targets, but will set a transitional period for gradual implementation to facilitate trade negotiations. If the rate of tariff implementation exceeds market expectations, the yield of US treasury bond bonds may rise, and the US dollar may appreciate, especially against Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and other currencies. The current market has partially reflected the possibility of rapid implementation of tariffs, but if the actual situation exceeds expectations, the market will further adjust. If it meets the expectations of the current easing pace, it will naturally be positive for the market and the US dollar index will decline 2. Border Immigration Policy Previously, Trump was very aggressive in deporting immigrants on a large scale. Recently, it seems that his views have softened. He and his border czar Horman have shifted their focus from mass deportation to priority treatment of illegal immigrants with criminal records, and those who have received a judge's expulsion order. Immigration affects labor supply, especially in the past one or two years when a large portion of the part-time jobs created in the United States have been contributed by illegal means. If illegal immigrants are expelled on a large scale, it will cause labor shortages and increase recruitment costs. If we prioritize the expulsion of illegal immigrants with criminal records at the beginning, the negative impact will naturally be much smaller. 3. Go to the regulatory level Deregulation involves various industrial policies, especially in the fields of finance, technology, and energy. In the 24th general election, Silicon Valley tycoons turned to support Trump one after another. One of the reasons is that the Democratic Party has made great efforts to regulate the technology field in the past few years. It has sued Meta, Google, Microsoft, etc., and has set complex regulatory policies in the AI field. Deregulation is essentially a process of deregulation of the industry. It is expected that Trump will freeze the existing rules and start the process of "re regulation", especially in the financial and energy industries. May use the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to overturn recent regulations issued by the Biden administration. 4. Fiscal Policy Last week's speech by the new finance minister Besent, https:// ((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1880082232939016265? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A believes that the US government does not have revenue issues, but has expenditure issues. Prioritizing the reduction of unnecessary and excessive expenses is also related to Musk's government efficiency department. However, the President's unilateral power in fiscal policy is limited, and it is expected that related actions will be focused on tax reform discussions in Congress. Tax Reform: It is expected that Congress will pass a budget resolution later in 2025 to discuss the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Fiscal deficit: If tariffs increase, it may partially offset the expansion of the fiscal deficit, but the specific effect depends on retaliatory measures taken by trading partners. 5. The encryption industry Money market friends should pay the most attention to Trump's administrative order on the encryption industry on the first day of his inauguration. After all, he said before that bitcoin was expected to be included in the national reserve. The fact that he issued meme tokens in person these two days makes everyone feel that the market environment is about to change dramatically. Pay attention to whether the content of Trump's revenue administrative order regarding bitcoin injection into national reserves, as well as the content of deregulation of the encryption industry, including freezing litigation not involving fraud, optimizing various excessive regulatory policies in the past, and whether to re sign the 21st Century Financial Innovation Act (FIT21 Act) We have previously discussed that for the entire capital market, a moderate policy pace is welcomed by the market, while a radical policy pace is feared and feared by the market. As for the currency market, we should expect Trump's encryption policy to be more radical and stronger. rub one's eyes and wait