Due to the impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, global assets have entered a phase of panic selling. BTC has shown relatively strong performance over the past week but is still influenced by macro factors, making it difficult to establish an independent market trend. As multiple countries and regions announce countermeasures against the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, market volatility has intensified.
In particular, China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10, escalating the market sell-off amid the competition among international giants, leading to a "Black Monday." Not only did macro assets plummet across the board, but the Nasdaq index has also fallen nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks dropped 4%, and BTC hit a low of $74,508, with a maximum fluctuation of over 10% in 24 hours.
The market is overly focused on "reciprocal tariffs," and the impact of news has deepened. From rumors of a "90-day suspension" to "debunking false information," BTC surged rapidly to $81,200 on the 7th. As of the writing of this article, the BTC price is holding at a support level of $79,000 (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of April 8, 14:30).
Market Interpretation
Event-driven factors dominate the recent market; pay attention to short-term market sentiment volatility risks
The market sell-off sentiment has led to a significant decline in U.S. stocks, with over $5 trillion in market value evaporated in the past few days, and losses exceeding $10 trillion since Trump's inauguration.
The connection between the market and macro variables has deepened. Although the pullback triggered by tariffs is a specific event-driven decline, due to the current uncontrollable human variables, it cannot be ruled out that various economic or political consultations regarding tariffs will take place in the next six months. Market sentiment will fluctuate with changes in trade policies, and investors are advised to pay attention to short-term market volatility risks.
Multiple countries have issued countermeasures, and economic competition has begun
According to Jinshi, the European Commission has proposed a 25% counter-tariff on a range of U.S. imported goods, which will take effect from May 16. The European Commission has removed U.S. bourbon whiskey from its list of goods subject to counter-tariffs. The document also indicates that the European Commission has proposed counter-tariffs on certain U.S. imported goods, which are scheduled to take effect on December 1.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that all possible measures will be taken to address the impact of U.S. tariffs. A task force has been established within the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Services Agency to handle U.S. tariff issues. Japan and the U.S. have decided to communicate at the departmental level regarding foreign exchange issues. South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok stated that South Korea will continue to closely monitor the financial market. The volatility of the financial market may persist, and if necessary, swift market stabilization measures will be taken. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea opened significantly higher on the 8th, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 6% at one point, and the TOPIX index expanding its gains to 6%. The KOSPI index in South Korea rose over 2% to 2381.31 points at one point.
A-share market stabilization measures initiated, A-shares show significant recovery
Before the market opened on the 8th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced measures to stabilize the A-share market, supporting state-owned enterprises in repurchasing shares to protect shareholder interests. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin have all announced plans to increase their holdings and collectively increase their stock assets to maintain stable market operations. The total share of stock ETFs increased by 42.764 billion shares, with net inflow estimated at approximately 74.003 billion yuan based on average transaction prices.
After the A-share market opened, there was a noticeable upward trend, with the large consumption and retail sectors leading the gains, and state-owned enterprises' stocks collectively rising, while Hong Kong stocks also showed significant upward momentum.
Recent Focus Points
Reciprocal tariffs exacerbate market volatility risks; key data is worth monitoring
After the tariff suspension confusion, President Trump stated that he would not suspend the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy. Trump told the media after a meeting with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House that he currently has no plans to suspend the tariff policy, as many leaders of economic entities are seeking to negotiate with him.
The March CPI data is about to be released. Although the data has not yet been published, market expectations for an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising. Swap trading indicates a roughly 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, well ahead of the Fed's scheduled rate decision on May 7. Meanwhile, investors are selling off risk assets and buying bonds, leading to a sharp drop in yields. On Monday, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury bond, which is most sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 22 basis points to 3.43%, totaling a decline of about 50 basis points since Trump announced the tariffs.
SEC announces agenda for April 11 crypto trading roundtable, which may promote crypto regulation progress
According to the SEC's official website, the SEC's Crypto Special Working Group will hold a public roundtable titled "Between Blocks and Dilemmas: Tailored Regulation for Crypto Trading" on April 11 from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM Eastern Time at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., which will be live-streamed. The meeting will be hosted by Goodwin Procter's partner Nicholas Losurdo, with participants including executives and experts from institutions such as Uniswap Labs, Coinbase, and NYSE. With the recent easing of crypto regulatory policies, the market anticipates that this roundtable may promote the progress of crypto regulation.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
