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Analysis Report on the Control Power of the US Stock Market and Bitcoin Market and April Market Trends
Core Logic
Who is in control?
Asset management giants led by BlackRock influence both the US stock market and the Bitcoin market through capital allocation. By the end of March, it is necessary to maintain the Bitcoin price above $83,000 (the corporate holding cost line) to avoid a "blow-up" in Q1 financial reports.
Reasons for the inevitable drop in April: High protection costs + demand for capital maneuvering (to support the US stock market and respond to Trump's tariff impacts), institutions may sell Bitcoin for cash.
Transmission of the US Stock Market Crisis
Trump increases tariffs → Retail investors sell stocks → Listed companies need to buy back to support prices → Sell Bitcoin for cash → Price drops.
If the US stock market crashes close to a circuit breaker (e.g., a single-day drop of 7%), regulators may intervene to stabilize the market (e.g., the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity), leading to a temporary rebound, but it is difficult to change the downward trend.
Bitcoin & Ethereum Trading Strategies
Bitcoin (BTC)
Short position: Gradually short between $78,100 - $78,800, targeting $75,000 - $76,000.
Bottom-fishing conditions: Stabilize above $74,800 (strong weekly support) + a large bullish candle appears on the 1-hour chart; otherwise, wait and see.
Ethereum (ETH)
Short position: Short on a rebound between $1,570 - $1,595, targeting $1,500 - $1,530.
Risk point: If regulators suddenly intervene to stabilize the market, it may rebound to $1,650, but the probability is low.
Key Risk Alerts
Regulatory "intervention": If the Federal Reserve intervenes urgently (e.g., lowering interest rates, purchasing bonds), the US stock market and cryptocurrency prices may experience a short-term rebound, but the impact will be limited.
Extreme market conditions: If Bitcoin falls below $70,000, it may trigger miner sell-offs (cost around $38,000), accelerating the decline.
Summary
April's main theme: Institutions sell coins for cash to support the US stock market → Bitcoin is bearish to $75,000, Ethereum is bearish to $1,500.
Operation: Focus on shorting during rebounds, do not guess the bottom, and closely monitor the risk of US stock market circuit breakers and regulatory actions.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends who need current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot trading, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Expertise style: Moving lock-up strategy centered around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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