Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded individuals on the investment journey. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the Coin King from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the articles and videos from the King, bringing you different news from the crypto world and precise market analysis every day.

**Click the link to watch the video: **https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1TDfAYkERf/

In-depth analysis of the cryptocurrency market in April 2025: V-shaped reversal, tariff shocks, and the game between institutions and retail investors.

1. Market sentiment and structural differentiation: "Ice and Fire" under liquidity traps

Sentiment indicators and liquidity dilemmas

The current cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen to 47 (neutral zone), recovering from 32 (fear) in mid-March. However, overall market liquidity remains at a near two-year low—Bitcoin's weekend trading volume is even below the levels seen during the 2023-2024 bear market, and the total market cap of altcoins has shrunk by 77% from the peak in 2021, with only a few mainstream coins remaining active among 36 million tokens. This state of "low volatility + low turnover" reflects a collective hesitation among players regarding directional choices.

Institutional vs. retail holding game

Institutions are hoarding Bitcoin at a historic scale: as of September 2025, institutional holdings exceed 520,000 BTC, with ETF products like BlackRock's IBIT attracting nearly 700 institutions holding 160 million shares. In contrast, over 80% of retail assets are concentrated in altcoins, but 78% of token prices have hit three-month lows, creating a "death spiral" due to release pressure and new token issuance (expected to reach $20 billion in the next six months). This differentiation confirms the market structure of "institutions sweeping up BTC while retail is trapped in altcoins."

2. Historical mirror: Insights from September 2023 and current breaking conditions

Reviewing the market logic of September 2023

At that time, the global market was under multiple pressures: the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate hikes (10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.49%), soaring oil prices (OPEC+ production cuts pushed WTI to $95), and the dollar index hitting a 10-month high, leading to a 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq in a single month, with cryptocurrencies also under pressure. The turning point came with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, as institutional funds flowed in, creating a "policy + capital" dual drive that initiated a new bull market.

Current market breaking conditions

To replicate the reversal of 2023, two core conditions must be met:

Macroeconomic policy catalyst: The Federal Reserve must lower interest rates or expand its balance sheet (current CME shows only a 38% probability of a rate cut in June), or there must be regulatory breakthroughs at the ETF level (such as the approval of a spot ETH ETF).

Optimizing capital structure: Solutions are needed for the liquidity trap in altcoins, such as reducing supply through token burn mechanisms or the emergence of phenomenal applications to drive ecological value.

3. Technical pattern analysis: The authenticity game of the V-shaped reversal

Verification elements of the daily V-shaped reversal

Bitcoin currently shows a typical V-shaped structure on the daily chart: a rapid drop from $83,500 to $78,200 followed by a swift rebound to $86,500, consistent with the three-phase characteristics of "steep decline - low-volume bottoming - high-volume recovery."

However, its effectiveness must meet:

Volume verification: A breakout above $86,500 must be accompanied by a 4-hour trading volume exceeding 150% of the 30-day average.

Time window: The price must hold above the $84,300 support (120-day moving average) within 72 hours after the V-shaped reversal; otherwise, it may evolve into a "false breakout."

Bollinger Bands and moving average system resonance signals

The current price has reached the upper Bollinger Band ($86,500), but volatility has contracted to 12.8% (below the 30-day average of 15.2%), indicating insufficient breakout momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day and 120-day moving averages form a "golden triangle" support in the $84,300-$84,800 range. If the weekly close holds above this area, the probability of a medium to long-term upward movement increases to 67%.

4. Tariff black swan: Market rehearsal for the policy node on April 3

Potential impact paths of tariff policies

According to a White House statement, Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs at 3 AM Beijing time on April 3, focusing on a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 20% general tariff. Historical data shows that similar policies could trigger a threefold chain reaction:

Transmission of U.S. stock volatility: If the S&P 500 fear index VIX breaks above 25, it will cause the correlation coefficient with the crypto market to rise from 0.38 to 0.62.

Dollar liquidity contraction: Companies may accelerate the repurchase of dollar assets in response to tariffs, pushing the DXY index above 105 and suppressing the valuation of risk assets.

Surge in mining costs: If mining chips are included in the tariff list, the overall network hash rate may decline by 15%-20%, exacerbating short-term selling pressure.

Framework for responding to long and short strategies

Bullish scenario: If the tariff impact is less than expected (only targeting specific industries), and Bitcoin holds above $84,300, one could position lightly long between $83,500-$84,300, targeting $86,500-$87,000.

Bearish scenario: If the tariff scope exceeds expectations and the price breaks below $83,500 (4-hour bearish candle), it may drop to $79,800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level).

5

Ultimate proposition: Revalidating Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute

Value voting by North Korean hackers

Between 2023 and 2025, North Korean hackers stole over $3 billion in crypto assets through attacks on platforms like KuCoin and Ronin Network, but ultimately over 98% of the stolen funds were converted to BTC through mixers. This path of "stealing altcoins - converting to BTC" reveals the consensus among large holders regarding Bitcoin's ultimate status as a store of value.

The deeper logic of institutional coin hoarding

Companies like MicroStrategy have seen their price-to-book ratio (PB) for BTC soar from 3.2 times in 2024 to 8.5 times, far exceeding the 1.8 times of gold mining companies. This valuation premium stems from:

Anti-inflation properties: Bitcoin's annualized deflation rate of 2.5% vs. a 4.8% increase in the dollar M2.

Geopolitical hedging demand: After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the usage of BTC for sanction evasion has increased by 340%.

6. Survival guide for retail investors: Three major rules to navigate bull and bear markets

Position reconstruction: Reduce altcoin holdings to below 20%, focusing on BTC (50%), ETH (30%), and compliant stablecoins (like USDC).

Event-driven strategy: Utilize the implied volatility (IV) peaks before and after the tariff announcement to sell a straddle option combination between $84,000-$86,000, capturing volatility premiums.

On-chain monitoring tools: Pay attention to Glassnode's "Reserve Risk Indicator" (current value 0.008, below the bull market threshold of 0.012) and the Coinbase Premium Index (institutional buying strength).

Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market in April 2025 is undergoing a triple transformation of "macroeconomic policy turning point + critical technical patterns + market structure reconstruction." If retail investors want to avoid becoming "fuel" under the institutional scythe, they must use Bitcoin as a shield and event-driven strategies as a spear, seeking alpha opportunities in the game between tariff black swans and V-shaped reversals. After all, in this market, the secret to survival has never been to predict the storm but to learn to adjust the sails in the storm.

This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been dominated by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes, so when making trades, please remember to control your take profit and stop loss. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Our expertise includes mobile lock-up strategies centered around high and low support and resistance, short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。