Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Due to new macroeconomic fluctuations on the horizon, Bitcoin (BTC) entered the end of the first quarter with a 13% decline.
The price trajectory of Bitcoin faces the risk of dropping below $80,000 due to the pressure on risk asset sentiment from new U.S. trade tariffs.
The tariff issues for cryptocurrency traders are primarily focused on April 2, referred to as "Liberation Day" by President Donald Trump, while gold is expected to rise.
Despite the gloomy outlook, Bitcoin's performance in March was relatively mild, and the first quarter could potentially become the worst one in seven years.
Currently, Bitcoin's profitability is pointing towards a bearish trend, with no realistic bottom in sight.
During the price decline, the Coinbase Premium showed noble resilience, indicating that panic sellers have exited.
This week, as the monthly and quarterly close of U.S. trade tariffs approached, the sentiment among Bitcoin traders also became tense.
As Bitcoin's price increasingly nears $80,000, many market participants are bracing for volatility in risk assets.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed that the weekly closing price on March 30 reached approximately $81,200, the lowest level in about two weeks.
"In the LTF, the new downward wick is worth noting," popular trader CrypNuevo responded in a thread on X.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Peer trading account HTL-NL noted a "bearish engulfing" candle appearing on the weekly chart.
"Let's wait and see," he told his followers on X that day.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL/X
According to trading resource Barchart's forecast, unless the situation for risk assets improves, conditions are unlikely to get much better over a longer time frame.
It warned before the Wall Street open that Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are heading towards a so-called "death cross," as short-term losses catch up with the broader upward trend.
"What if the price action is red as it enters these death cross points, and the actual crossover marks the bottom, as we have seen many times before?" Barchart asked.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Meanwhile, exchange order book data provided by monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that buy and sell liquidity is tightly clustered around the price.
Additionally, CrypNuevo is particularly focused on the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMA).
"He observed: 'There is some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA, which usually leads to aggressive moves."
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve officials are important events this week for risk asset traders.
Job vacancies, unemployment claims, and non-farm payroll data will all be released, with the first round of data set for April 2.
However, this is likely to be overshadowed by the U.S. imposing new trade tariffs on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report, cryptocurrencies remain highly sensitive to tariff news, with inconsistent messages from President Donald Trump regarding which measures will ultimately take effect.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter pointed out in a dedicated thread on X that by the end of the month, tariffs will affect approximately $1.5 trillion worth of U.S. imports.
"President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday (April 2) for several weeks. This day has been named 'Liberation Day' by him, with widespread new tariffs on the way," it wrote.
US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Kobeissi noted that the level of market uncertainty, represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, is exceptionally high.
Market commentators are not the only ones in a "wait-and-see" mode; they will also face many surprises.
On April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) annual conference in Arlington, Virginia, about the economic outlook.
Earlier this month, Powell stated that while it is not easy to attribute inflationary pressures to tariffs, he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates—this is a key move that risk asset traders are watching.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool latest estimates indicate that the next rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still expected at the June meeting.
Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
As the monthly and quarterly candlesticks prepare to close, Bitcoin's mid-term performance is clearly disappointing.
Data from CoinGlass shows that as of this writing, BTC/USD has fallen 12.7% in the first quarter, marking the worst first quarter since 2018.
BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
With gold performing excellently as a safe-haven asset, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs, and BTC/USD down 30% from its January peak, the situation for safe-haven investors is even more challenging.
However, from a historical perspective, this bull market correction is still quite standard. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets exceeded 60%.
"The company acknowledged in February: 'This bull market is still the least volatile of all bull markets."
Bitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: Glassnode
Others also believe that despite the lack of further price increases being frustrating, Bitcoin has actually withstood the test of the macroeconomic storm quite well.
This weekend, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized CoinGlass's data, stating, "Overall, this quarter is not scary."
On a monthly basis, the situation is similarly far from the most bearish Bitcoin price scenarios—since March 1, Bitcoin's price has dropped 2.7%, making the performance in the third month of this year quite average.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
As the market gradually shakes off the "overheated" state, a key indicator of Bitcoin's price continues to issue warning signals this week.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares market value to realized value to determine short-term and long-term profitability.
In early March, the tool experienced a so-called "death cross"—its short-term moving average fell below the long-term moving average, coinciding with Bitcoin's drop below $80,000, triggering profit shrinkage.
"As in previous cycles, the price drop after this cross, following Bitcoin reaching a local peak, reinforces the effectiveness of MVRV as a market sentiment indicator," wrote Yonsei Dent, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, in a "Quicktake" blog post on March 30.
Bitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Dent suggested that while current behavior mimics past Bitcoin price cycles, market participants "should remain cautious of further downside risks."
Last month, some analysts predicted that based on MVRV ratio data, Bitcoin still has room to refresh historical highs over a longer time frame.
This quarter, the return of Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow, with panic selling becoming a characteristic of recent market behavior.
Related content: As "Spoofy the Whale" buys Bitcoin, the $65,000 Bitcoin price target piles up
The premium is the spot price difference between Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, currently hovering around neutral.
While the premium itself is not particularly eye-catching, the resilience of this indicator to ongoing BTC price pressure has caught the attention of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon.
"He summarized in another Quicktake post this weekend: 'Panic selling is decreasing."
A positive premium reflects growing confidence among U.S. investors in increasing their BTC risk exposure, which is also a traditional key factor for the sustainability of the Bitcoin bull market.
Meanwhile, in the context of falling prices, its downward resistance has led Sumoon to question whether "the trend may reverse."
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or opinions. Any investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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