The cryptocurrency market, as an emerging financial field, exhibits characteristics of high volatility and high returns. The underlying blockchain technology innovation brings opportunities for token economies, DeFi, and other innovations, but the market is severely affected by risks such as policy changes, project fraud, and liquidity traps, leading to dramatic fluctuations. Short-term price movements often exceed traditional assets by several times. Traders need to recognize its "zero-sum game" nature, establish a strict risk control system, and avoid leverage abuse. The key to long-term survival lies in continuous learning: mastering technical analysis tools, tracking on-chain data changes, and understanding the macroeconomic impact on the crypto market. Daily reviews should focus on executing trading discipline, managing emotional vulnerabilities, and validating strategy effectiveness, iterating cognition through data recording. True profits come from rational judgments of market cycles, not short-term speculation. Only by combining risk awareness with learning ability can one achieve sustainable value capture in the crypto wave.
—— Market Review, Technical Signals, and This Week's Trading Ideas
I. Last Week's Market Review: Intense Bull-Bear Struggle, Market Performs "Roller Coaster"
- Bitcoin Performance: Surge and Retracement: At the beginning of last week, it rebounded from a low point, reaching a peak of around $89,000, but failed to hold the key resistance level, subsequently falling to around $81,600, with a slight rebound over the weekend, currently oscillating in the $82,000-$83,500 range.
Bull-Bear Tug-of-War: The price tested support and resistance multiple times but failed to form a unilateral trend, leading the market into a "grinding market."
- Ethereum Performance: Encountered Resistance and Plummeted: After failing to break through $2,100 at the beginning of the week, it quickly dropped to $1,796 over the weekend, then rebounded into the $1,810-$1,850 range for consolidation.
Weak Oscillation: The rebound strength is weak, and bears still dominate.
Summary: The market was highly volatile last week but lacked direction, entering a consolidation phase after repeated bull-bear tugging.
II. Current Technical Signals: Indicators Undergoing Repair, Oscillation May Be the Main Theme
- Common Technical Features (Daily Level)
MACD: The two lines are below the zero axis but have turned upward, with green bars (bearish energy) continuously shrinking, indicating weakening downward momentum, but no strong reversal signal has formed.
RSI: Not in the oversold zone, market sentiment is neutral, lacking extreme buying or selling momentum in the short term.
Bollinger Bands: The opening is narrowing, and the three lines are parallel, indicating that price fluctuations may decrease, entering a box oscillation mode.
- Key Point Analysis
Bitcoin
Support Below: $81,600 (short-term defense line), $80,000 (strong psychological support, breaking this may trigger panic).
Resistance Above: $83,500 (first resistance level), $85,000 (second resistance level), must hold $87,000-$88,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
Ethereum
Support Below: $1,810 (short-term bull-bear dividing line), $1,760 (next defense level).
Resistance Above: $1,880 (short-term pressure), $1,960 (strong resistance area), $2,000 is the key threshold to reverse weakness.
III. This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Ideas
Overall Trend Judgment: Technical indicators show the market is in a repair phase, likely continuing oscillation in the short term, with a focus on key point breakthroughs. If Bitcoin holds above $83,500 and Ethereum breaks $1,880, it may trigger a short-term rebound; conversely, breaking support requires caution for a new round of decline.
Specific Trading Suggestions: High Sell Low Buy in Range
Bitcoin: Within the $81,600-$83,500 range, try long positions near support with light positions, and gradually reduce positions as it rebounds to $83,500-$85,000; if it breaks below $80,000, stop loss is necessary.
Ethereum: Build long positions on dips within the $1,810-$1,830 range, and gradually exit as it rebounds to the $1,880-$1,960 range; if it breaks $1,760, stop loss and wait.
Breakout Following Strategy: If Bitcoin breaks $87,000 with volume and Ethereum holds above $2,000, consider following the trend to go long on pullbacks, targeting previous highs; if it breaks strong support, temporarily avoid risks.
- Risk Warning: Avoid heavy bets on unilateral trends; in a volatile market, "accumulating small victories for big wins" is more prudent. Corrections in a bull market often present opportunities, but one must patiently wait for clear signals. Keep a close eye on key points, control positions, and respond flexibly to market changes!
(Note: 📣 Due to the limited timeliness and depth of information on public platforms, the market changes rapidly. Key turning points, precise operational strategies, and sudden risk warnings need to be synchronized in real-time on (public account - Big Bear). Here, you can receive: real-time strategy push, in-depth analysis support, interactive Q&A, risk warnings, and optimization suggestions for personal holdings. 🚨 Remember: The market always rewards those who act faster and have more accurate information! Be a winner among the minority.)
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