Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about the preliminary GDP value for the first quarter from the U.S. this Wednesday. If it really comes in at 0.4% as expected, the market is likely to panic a bit. This growth rate is quite disappointing, and it feels like the economy is hitting the brakes. If the U.S. economy cools down, Bitcoin will also be affected, as a poor overall environment makes investors more anxious.

Then there's the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data coming out on Friday. If they show that the job market is really struggling, we’ll need to revisit Wednesday's GDP and PCE figures.

If these three indicators sing a bearish tune together, the market may become even more pessimistic. If the job market falters, concerns about an economic recession will grow, and Bitcoin might be dragged down in the short term, but in the long run, risk-averse demand could give it a boost.

Additionally, in the early hours of Tuesday, Arizona will have a third reading on its Bitcoin state strategic reserve, which may require a vote. If this passes and goes to the governor for signing, Arizona will become the first state in the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

This is not a trivial matter; it’s different from Trump's approach. Trump's strategy was not to sell the Bitcoin held by the U.S., but also not to spend too much taxpayer money to buy more, fearing it would worsen the deficit. So if this vote passes, Bitcoin is likely to see a surge, giving bulls more confidence.

As we all know, the market dipped earlier due to tariffs, but after Trump softened his stance on tariffs, the market rebounded. Now it seems Bitcoin has stabilized, while strong stocks still need to put in more effort.

Tariffs are not a major issue in the short term; everyone's attention has shifted to the economy. However, tariffs could become a problem again in 90 days, but that’s a matter for three months from now, so let’s set it aside for now.

Currently, market sentiment has shifted from the chaotic tariff issues to economic factors. How Bitcoin performs depends on whether everyone’s views align.

When consensus is strong, like during previous interest rate cuts, ETF approvals, and Trump’s election victory, everyone felt positive, and the trend surged upward. Now that these favorable factors have materialized, there are no particularly unified new expectations.

Regarding interest rate cuts, Powell and Trump are still at odds, with significant differences. Without a unified market view, volatility is likely. Bitcoin has seen a slight upward trend from last week to the weekend, with both highs and lows moving up, shifting from a pullback to a rebound, which is somewhat interesting.

However, the lack of strong consensus means that those who hesitated to jump in during the rapid rise may have missed out. Those who missed the boat might be tempted to short, only to get trapped below 90k, needing to seek out bearish analyses to boost their spirits. In fact, given the current news environment, the market's movements have been strange, so waiting for opportunities is better than making reckless moves; getting too deep into a position can be disastrous.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 95500

Second Resistance Level: 94200

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 92500-92900

Second Support Level: 91900

Today's Suggestions:

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke below the previous upward trend line and the 120-day moving average. Currently, we can set 92.5K~93K as a key support level. Since it dropped sharply with a large bearish candle, a decent rebound is needed to reduce the likelihood of further declines.

On the hourly chart, there have been four consecutive bearish candles, so we need to be cautious of a potential N-shaped decline. We can draw a short-term upward trend line for now and consider entering short-term trades once we see higher lows.

It has already broken through 93.6K, but don’t rush to chase the long side. The 20, 60, and 120-day moving averages are too close, and a correction is likely in the short term. The current first support level of 92.5K~92.9K is a critical zone; if the lows can be raised during the adjustment, we can consider entering short-term positions.

4.28 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long positions in the 91900-92500 range, Target: 94200-95500

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

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