After a six-year wait, the Pi mainnet has finally launched.

Pi Network is a new type of digital cryptocurrency that focuses on low-barrier participation through mobile devices. Unlike traditional Bitcoin mining, which requires significant electricity and specialized equipment, Pi Network allows users to "mine" using a mobile app, greatly reducing technical and cost barriers, enabling more ordinary people to participate in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

At first glance, it seems like a typical "crypto" project, but that's not the case. Pi Network was established in 2019 but has delayed the launch of its mainnet, with mobile mining still in a "mining air" state. In terms of token acquisition mechanisms, a higher proportion of mining shares is gained by inviting friends to use a registration code, making this model more akin to a pyramid scheme than traditional blockchain consensus mechanisms like PoW or PoS.

However, after six years, Pi Network has finally announced the launch of its mainnet, and several exchanges have begun trading its tokens. It seems that Pi is serious this time, so how should we value Pi coins?

Total Supply and Circulation of Pi Coins

The Pi Network has not officially disclosed the final total supply cap of Pi coins, but based on community and white paper information, it is generally believed that the maximum supply of Pi coins is around 10 billion. This means that if each Pi coin is valued at $1, the fully diluted market cap (FDV) would reach $10 billion. As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the closed period of the mainnet and has not fully opened for trading, so the actual circulating supply is limited. According to blockchain explorer data:

• August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion Pi have migrated to the mainnet (of which 1.29 billion are locked by users)

• September 2024: The cumulative migrated supply on the mainnet increased to about 4.07 billion (with 1.35 billion locked), a 106.6% increase in supply within just over a year.

• January 2025: The cumulative migration on the mainnet reached 5.56 billion, of which about 660 million are still locked. In just three months, the supply increased by 36.6%.

Regarding total supply, the Pi white paper mentioned that when the mainnet opens, users may have mined a total of 10-20 billion PI. In other words, the initial actual circulating supply may only be a small portion of the total, with most Pi coins gradually produced through mining over time. This also means that in the short term, supply is controlled, but there is significant potential inflation pressure in the long term.

Market Demand and Potential User Data

Since the launch of the mobile mining app in 2019, Pi Network claims to have attracted tens of millions of users globally. In terms of user base: according to the Pi team, there are over 60 million registered users worldwide. However, it is worth noting that only a portion of these are real users who have completed KYC verification. In 2023, Pi officials stated that about 12 million people had passed KYC verification. Even by early 2025, on-chain data shows that the total number of mainnet wallets is only about 9.11 million, accounting for just 15% of the claimed users.

This indicates that while the number of registrations is large, the proportion of truly active users who have completed migration to the blockchain is limited.

Additionally, daily active usage can also reflect actual demand. According to third-party blockchain explorer ExplorePi data, the average number of daily active wallets on the Pi mainnet is about 20,000, with a peak of about 42,000 in January 2025. Compared to the tens of millions of users claimed by Pi Network, this level of activity is relatively low.

Valuation Models and Possible Price Ranges

Based on the above information, we can attempt to establish several valuation models for Pi coins to estimate their price range. Common cryptocurrency valuation approaches include "market cap" and "OTC price."

Market Cap: Currently, knowing the total token supply is 10 billion and estimating the circulating supply at 1 billion:

1. Benchmarking against Dogecoin: Both have user community-driven characteristics. If Pi can replicate DOGE's success, using DOGE's current market cap of $40 billion as a benchmark, the value of Pi tokens could reach $4.

2. Market cap ranking in the top 50: The current 50th ranked coin is POL, with a market cap of $2.7 billion. If Pi can open and enter the top 50 by market cap, the token price would be around $0.27.

3. Market cap ranking in the top 100: The current 100th ranked coin is XTZ, with a market cap of $920 million. If Pi can open and enter the top 100 by market cap, the value of Pi tokens could reach $0.092.

OTC: Over-the-counter (OTC) trading has always been the main way for Pi coin enthusiasts to exchange. In the absence of a public market, price discrepancies have emerged in different regions:

1. In mainland China and some Southeast Asian regions, there were early rumors that private purchases of Pi coins were around several yuan. In the Taiwan market, as mentioned earlier, the OTC purchase price is approximately between $0.23 and $0.85.

2. In some foreign communities, some are willing to privately trade small amounts of Pi at valuations of $5-10, mostly betting on future appreciation after listing. However, such private transactions are fraught with fraud risks and are limited in number, so they cannot be considered mainstream quotes.

3. Some merchants and users privately agree to accept Pi coins in exchange for goods or services to get ahead in the Pi ecosystem. This can be seen as an implicit quote in off-market applications, converting each Pi to a value of $1-3, but this is more due to merchants' marketing or support for the Pi community and does not necessarily represent their willingness to purchase Pi coins at that price indefinitely.

The market valuation of Pi coins will depend on two main factors: supply-demand dynamics and confidence consensus:

• From the supply perspective: the initially limited circulating supply may push up the price of Pi coins, but in the long run, the large total supply (10 billion) is a Damocles sword. If the application ecosystem cannot expand to absorb this supply, prices will eventually face downward pressure. Therefore, the Pi project team may need to take measures to control inflation rates and increase application demand to maintain coin value.

• From the demand perspective: hundreds of thousands to millions of active coin-holding users will be the cornerstone of Pi coin value. After the exchange listing, the behavior of this group of users (whether to hold and wait or sell for cash) will directly impact market cap trends. If most choose to continue holding and view Pi as a long-term asset, coupled with external funds flowing in, the market cap of Pi coins is expected to reach the tens of billions, pushing the price into the mid-high range of $1-$3. Conversely, if a sell-off occurs immediately after listing, leading to oversupply, the market cap may only stop at the billion-dollar level or even lower, with prices falling below $1.

• Market positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it does not rely solely on pyramid-style growth but genuinely integrates blockchain technology and applications, the market may give it a higher valuation multiple (similar to levels like XRP or BNB). Otherwise, if negative narratives (pyramid scheme, lack of blockchain support, etc.) are confirmed, Pi coins may struggle to escape the fate of value depreciation.

The valuation of Pi coins is chaotic, but it is certain that short-term fluctuations will be very intense.

We recommend paying attention to the following indicators to assess the valuation trend of Pi coins:

1. Trading volume and turnover rate in the first week after launch (reflecting market heat)

2. Progress of mainnet unlocking (supply release rhythm)

3. Implementation of Pi ecosystem applications (determining long-term demand)

Most importantly, the overall cryptocurrency market conditions. In a bullish atmosphere, speculative funds are abundant, making it easier for Pi coins to achieve higher valuations; conversely, in a bear market, even the best themes struggle to avoid declines, and the recent lack of market liquidity has made valuation situations less optimistic than before.

However, it is difficult to calculate the madness of human nature in valuation. What Pi Network is praised for is its community cohesion.

Without practical applications, the ability to "break out" relies on word-of-mouth communication, which is quite similar to the composition of meme coins. The reason Pi Network has such a strong community is that Pi coins have an invitation mechanism that builds a hierarchical structure, allowing invitees to gain benefits (such as increasing their mining speed) by attracting newcomers.

This profit structure has been continuously tied to the dream of Pi Network for six years, allowing both the project and the community to remain stable. Its survival time has already exceeded that of 95% of crypto projects, and most community members have become staunch believers, even claiming that after the mainnet launch, they will not sell a single coin but will instead buy more Pi coins. With a low initial circulating supply and community loyalty, it is difficult to estimate where the market cap of Pi, which has been operating for six years, will reach. However, it can be anticipated that at the beginning of the token launch, there will definitely be significant volatility.

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