Produced by | OKG Research

Author | Hedy Bi

At 1 AM on January 21 (Beijing time), Trump officially resumed his position as President of the United States. Just two days before his inauguration, the market witnessed a globally significant event: Trump issued a hundredfold coin named TRUMP. This meme coin, which has no technical foundation and is entirely based on personal branding, saw its market value exceed $8 billion in just a few days. A successful narrative can generate consensus, and consensus is an important component of the market.

In this context, Bitcoin, as the pioneer of cryptocurrencies, has increasingly raised questions about whether Bitcoin today is merely a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system." Whether it is Trump's proposal to regard Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve or the fact that some countries have already classified Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin is gradually being seen as one of the potential "global strategic assets." Is this proposal solely due to the scarcity brought about by Bitcoin's fixed supply? We can seek deeper meaning from history.

Oil and Gold: The Cornerstones of National Strategy

Looking back at history, it is not difficult to find that energy and precious metals have always been the core guarantees of national economic security. The oil crisis of 1973 forced the United States to establish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ensure protection against supply chain disruptions. To this day, the U.S. remains one of the world's major oil reserve countries, with its strategic oil reserves long stabilizing at around 700 million barrels, accounting for 15% of global reserves.

Gold is another, older strategic reserve asset. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, although the dollar has decoupled from gold, gold's status has never been replaced. As a symbol of wealth and credit, gold remains one of the main reserve assets for central banks around the world. The U.S. currently holds about 8,133 tons of gold reserves, accounting for 23% of the global total, providing additional stability and credibility to its financial system and reinforcing its core position in the global credit system.

The reason these two assets can become strategic reserves is not only due to their physical properties (scarcity and utility) but also because they embody the core trust of the economic order: oil is the lifeblood of industrial operation, while gold is the last line of defense for the monetary system.

In traditional economies, national strategic reserves often rely on physical assets such as oil and gold, whose value is usually closely related to their scarcity, availability, and market demand. However, with technological advancements and the deepening of globalization, the limitations of physical assets are gradually becoming apparent. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, gold experienced a net outflow of $4.865 billion in 2023.

We must consider what characteristics a new generation of national strategic reserves needs in the technological era. Do national strategic reserves in the technological age still only exist in the form of "physical assets"?

Bitcoin: A New Type of Strategic Reserve in the Technological Era?

The demand for "trust" has undergone profound changes in the technological era. Traditional trust systems rely on guarantees from governments, banks, or other central authorities, while Bitcoin proposes a decentralized trust mechanism—one that does not depend on a single institution or government, with its value recognized and maintained by countless market participants worldwide. Because of this, Bitcoin possesses the ability to break geographical and political boundaries, enabling global value storage and exchange beyond the limitations of traditional physical assets.

Unlike the hype surrounding Trump Coin ($TRUMP), which is a meme coin without a technical foundation, Bitcoin represents a more significant value. The market emotions and participation it has sparked in a short time reveal new rules of market operation that make us pay more attention to the value of consensus. Whether it is the love of fans, the consensus of FOMO emotions, or the consensus based on mathematics and algorithms, just like the early days of Bitcoin, as long as there are people using it globally, trusting this consensus based on algorithms and mathematics, along with a public and transparent ledger, it will have its own value.

Compared to the "national strategic reserves" of physical assets, Bitcoin carries the scarcity and value storage attributes of gold while possessing the global circulation potential similar to oil. More importantly, unlike oil or gold, Bitcoin's value does not rely on the promotion of a single country or institution but is constructed by the beliefs of countless market participants worldwide. The industry has observed Bitcoin evolving from a "decentralized technological experiment" to a "global strategic asset."

This foundation of global trust, unbound by geographical and political boundaries, is the new type of national strategic reserve in the technological era and an exploration of future trust mechanisms by society.

The Existing Layout of the U.S. Regarding Bitcoin

From the existing strategic reserve layout of the U.S., its high proportion strategy for oil and gold reflects its pursuit of global economic dominance. Currently, U.S. gold reserves account for 23% of the global total, while oil reserves account for 15% of the global total. These figures indicate that the U.S. maintains a high level of control in the financial and energy systems through centralized resource allocation.

At present, the U.S. government has not announced direct holdings of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, but the private sector's deep involvement in the Bitcoin ecosystem is becoming a global focus. For example, publicly held companies in the U.S. such as Tesla and MicroStrategy have openly held Bitcoin, and some states like Pennsylvania are considering establishing Bitcoin reserves. U.S. investors are indirectly holding Bitcoin through trust funds and ETFs. According to incomplete statistics from OKG Research, as of January 20, the public sector holds about 1% of Bitcoin, while the private sector holds about 9% (decentralized and centralized exchanges cannot be included due to the lack of IP address data), totaling about 10% of Bitcoin held in the U.S., with 90% in the private sector. The trend of the private sector increasing Bitcoin holdings continues. BlackRock has pointed out that the increasing fiscal deficit and debt pressure have enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative reserve asset, especially among institutional investors. Compared to gold and oil, there is still significant room for growth in the public sector's holdings.

Regardless of how Bitcoin and other crypto assets are stored as reserves, this is not just a matter of quantity; it is also about how countries explore the upgrade and reconstruction of future financial systems in the global technological era.

Transitioning from a "decentralized technological experiment" to a "strategic asset in the technological era," Bitcoin represents not only the financial application scenarios of blockchain technology but also humanity's bold exploration of a new trust system. Whether Bitcoin's future can be as deeply embedded in the national economic lifeblood as gold and oil remains to be seen. The ultimate answer may depend on the global economy's acceptance speed of the new digital trust and the strategic vision of major economies.

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