The viewpoint of FOSS is very similar to the viewpoint in my pinned tweet. Its core idea is that when the dollar rises, investors' risk appetite decreases, which is unfavorable for risk markets. Conversely, when the dollar falls, investors' risk appetite increases, which is beneficial for risk markets.

The key point lies in the monetary policy for 2025, as the current market expectation is that even if the Federal Reserve does not only execute two rate cuts, it may expand to four, similar to the dot plot from September. However, this will still be relatively optimistic for the dollar, so it is very likely that it will lower investors' risk appetite in 2025.

Of course, some friends have said that if the unemployment rate rises, it will increase the number of rate cuts, which would be favorable. In fact, it is quite the opposite. The Federal Reserve's neutral value for the unemployment rate in 2025 is 4.3%. If it exceeds and significantly surpasses 4.3% for a long time, it is very likely to trigger the market's perception of an economic recession, which is actually a greater bearish signal.

Therefore, my current viewpoint for 2025 is still to wait and see until Q1, especially around the February earnings season, and then we can discuss further. For now, I don't see it, but if Trump can fulfill his promises as early as possible in 2025, then the peaks of #Bitcoin and #Ethereum may be higher, and the curve may be smoother. If not, it may be time to pay more attention to altcoins.

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