Market Structure Analysis
The market structure shows that the institutionalization process is steadily advancing, while also providing opportunities for retail investors to participate.
Author: DWF Labs
Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow
Introduction
The cryptocurrency market has just experienced one of the most anticipated events of 2024—Trump's successful election. This event triggered significant changes in the market, not only pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to a historic high but also driving a comprehensive rise in most cryptocurrencies.
Currently, the trading price of BTC is approaching $100,000. This target has been a hot topic among speculators since 2021.
This report will focus on analyzing key indicators and trends in BTC price movements, DeFi activities, stablecoin market capitalization, and altcoin performance.
These indicators can provide us with important references to better grasp the opportunities in the new market cycle.
BTC Trend Analysis
Since the launch of the ETF, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its strong upward momentum. Overall, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shows a clear upward trend.
In the short term (EMA 13 and EMA 25), from August to November, leading up to the elections, the EMA has maintained a stable positive expansion. The mid-term trend (EMA 50) has provided important support during pullbacks, with BTC prices consistently staying above the EMA 50 since September.
For the long-term trend, since July, the expansion of the 100-day EMA has been continuously increasing, indicating a clear bullish signal in the market.
Market trends show a positive outlook: BTC's price movements indicate that short-term, mid-term, and long-term trends are all exhibiting bullish overlaps, while the market structure remains healthy.
Despite the optimistic market outlook, we still need to pay attention to dynamic market changes. Using simple trend indicators like EMA, we can identify the following potential risk signals:
Price breaks below short-term or mid-term trend lines
Long-term EMA crosses below short-term EMA
After an upward trend, EMA shows signs of contraction
BTC's Binance and Coinbase Spot Basis Analysis
The recent rise in BTC is closely related to the return of the Coinbase premium. The so-called Coinbase premium refers to the spot price of BTC on the Coinbase platform being higher than that on the Binance platform. This phenomenon is often seen as a signal of renewed interest from institutional investors and capital inflows. When the Coinbase premium disappears, the market often experiences a price correction. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the Coinbase premium as a key market indicator.
Generally, a sustained Coinbase premium often indicates the arrival of a trending market, while the Binance premium reflects a broader increase in market participation.
The table below summarizes how the changes in the Binance and Coinbase basis affect BTC's price movements and shifts in market conditions.
Stablecoins, DeFi, and Industry Trends
Trump's victory has brought the possibility of "de-regulation" in the cryptocurrency space. After the election, DeFi's performance has been particularly impressive, which may reflect the market's expectations for a more relaxed regulatory environment, further propelled by Trump's own launch of his stablecoin project, World Liberty Finance.
From the growth trends of stablecoins and DeFi, user adoption rates are continuously increasing. Combined with future market analysis, the ongoing popularity of USDT and USDC will further enhance the overall liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. This trend resonates with the potential for relaxed regulatory policies following Trump's victory, further supporting the optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
(Note: Data sourced from Coingecko and DefiLlama)
It is worth noting that despite the overall strong performance of the industry, Meme tokens are far ahead in terms of returns. This may be because retail investors prefer assets that are centered around attracting attention. In contrast, the decline in volatility in other sectors may reflect their gradual maturation.
Investment themes and trend changes in the cryptocurrency market often exhibit cyclical characteristics. Therefore, focusing on areas such as DeFi and Layer 1 (first-layer blockchain) may help identify early signals of institutional adoption. Additionally, the integration with real-world assets (RWA) and infrastructure projects or applications may also become important guides for industry development.
As the themes and narratives in the crypto market continue to diversify, employing a data-driven approach to track these changes becomes particularly important.
Conclusion
In 2024, the cryptocurrency market shows significant signs of maturation. The performance across various sectors is distinct, and the behavioral patterns of institutional and retail investors are becoming increasingly apparent. Bitcoin's strong performance has driven growth in multiple sectors, with Meme tokens standing out in particular.
The market structure indicates that the institutionalization process is steadily advancing while also providing opportunities for retail investors to participate. At DWF, we continuously monitor core indicators such as Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi and the growth of stablecoins. These data not only depict the overall landscape of industry development but also provide insights into future trends.
Furthermore, monitoring the capital flows of major crypto assets is an important indicator of market momentum. Through these indicators, investors can better manage risks and formulate investment strategies.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
