According to Vaneck‘s mid-November analysis, bitcoin’s recent price spike highlights strong investor sentiment fueled by policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump. On Nov. 5, election night, bitcoin surged nearly 9%, reaching $75,000 as markets responded to Trump’s campaign promises to eliminate the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) “regulation-by-enforcement” stance and foster a crypto-friendly legislative environment.

“Trump has already started appointing pro-crypto figures across the executive branch, while the Republican party now holds a unified government, increasing the likelihood of supportive legislation,” Frankovitz and Sigel state. “Such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve—the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th—and rewriting crypto market structure and stablecoin draft legislation.”

“Bitcoin Prices Appear Overheated When 30 Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Perp Funding Rates Exceed 10% for ~1-3 Months,” Vaneck analysts Frankovitz and Sigel detail.

Building on historical patterns, Vaneck draws comparisons to the post-2020 election rally, during which bitcoin’s price more than doubled by year-end, ultimately achieving a 137% gain in 2021. The analysts predict a similar trajectory this cycle, citing key market indicators. For instance, bitcoin’s dominance, a measure of its market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, reached 59% in November, its highest level since March 2021, reflecting renewed confidence in the asset.

Vaneck’s research also highlights robust onchain metrics. Bitcoin’s network activity shows resilience, with daily transactions near historic highs and transfer volumes increasing by 118% month-over-month. Despite a 15% decline in transaction counts, larger payloads have driven record-high average transaction sizes. The report further adds:

With bitcoin’s price trading at all-time highs, ~99% of all bitcoin addresses are currently profitable.

While optimistic about bitcoin’s near-term performance, Frankovitz and Sigel caution against potential overheating. Their analysis of perpetual futures funding rates—a key indicator of market sentiment—suggests that sustained high rates often coincide with cycle tops. As of mid-November, funding rates have exceeded thresholds historically associated with strong short-term gains but warn of diminishing returns over longer time horizons.

Bitcoin’s unrealized profit metrics further support the bullish outlook. Vaneck notes that relative unrealized profits, a measure of paper gains, sit within a range typically associated with the middle stages of bull markets. However, should these levels approach historical peaks, it could signal increased risk of market corrections as profit-taking accelerates.

“Historically, elevated 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP levels—especially above 0.60 and 0.70—signal strong market sentiment and potential overheating,” Vaneck’s report notes.

Source: Vaneck’s “Mid-November Bitcoin Chaincheck”

Retail interest also shows signs of revival. According to Vaneck, search term popularity for “crypto” remains well below previous bull market peaks, suggesting the current rally has room for further growth before reaching speculative excess. Meanwhile, Vaneck says trading platform engagement, such as the Coinbase app’s surge to a top-10 rank, reflects heightened public attention.

Vaneck emphasizes that the regulatory environment remains a decisive factor for bitcoin’s future. The firm anticipates that Trump’s administration will repeal restrictive measures like the SEC’s accounting bulletin and support broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer crypto custody solutions. Additionally, legislation enabling stablecoin issuance by state-chartered banks could bolster U.S. dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.

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