Bitcoin-focused prediction markets are pricing a turbulent 2026, with bettors expecting sharp swings but treating six-figure prices as a distant long shot.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Kalshi to keep running its exchange after finding that New York’s attempt to stop the platform presented a market emergency. The commission cited a hypothetical bitcoin position to argue that forced liquidation could spread losses well beyond prediction markets. Its premise, that the contracts are swaps, was rejected by a federal judge days earlier.

Bitcoin stabilized near $63,400 on Wednesday following a volatile intra-day move between $63,317 and $64,400, leaving its market cap unchanged at $1.27 trillion.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted a modest $4.89 million net inflow on Tuesday, helped by a $50.20 million addition to Blackrock’s IBIT. Ether funds remained slightly negative, while solana ETFs attracted fresh capital.

Tether’s USDT supply has declined by about $4 billion on a 60-day rolling basis, according to Cryptoquant data. Analysts say the drop may reflect investors moving back into fiat, weaker speculative demand, and changing incentives across the stablecoin market.

U.S. inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, another sign that spring’s energy-driven price shock is fading even as inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

On Tuesday, Aug. 11, onchain trackers caught a Genesis ethereum (ETH) wallet moving 2,680 ETH worth $5.03 million after sitting untouched for 11 years. The ancient stash was worth just $830 back then, meaning the long-forgotten pile delivered a staggering 605,924% gain.

Harmony Protocol’s native token, ONE, fell more than 30% to an all-time low after an attacker exploited the network to mint over 4 billion unauthorized tokens.

Strategy CEO Phong Le says the bitcoin treasury company will resume accumulating bitcoin later this year, even after selling four times since May. Le noted Strategy has still bought about 175,000 BTC in 2026 against roughly 7,000 sold, a 25-to-1 buy-to-sell ratio.

Metaplanet and Hut8 pulled a combined 1,966 BTC (worth roughly $125 million) off exchanges within a three-hour window on August 12.

Bitwise Asset Management has cut its workforce by 14%, trimming headcount to about 155 from 180, as a prolonged crypto price slump has continued to squeeze many digital-asset firms.

Glassnode says bitcoin sellers are showing signs of exhaustion, though the onchain analytics firm stopped short of confirming a historical market bottom is in.

XRP wallets holding at least 1 million tokens grew by 32 over the past three months, even as the token’s market capitalization fell 29% in the same window, per Santiment.

Sharplink reported a $394.3 million second-quarter loss as falling ether prices triggered more than $397 million in unrealized losses and impairments. Still, staking generated $11.2 million in revenue as the company continued building one of the largest corporate ETH treasuries.

U.S. regulators have moved to block imports of foreign-made humanoid robots, targeting devices produced abroad, especially in China, on national security and cybersecurity grounds. The FCC-backed restriction, announced in late July, also sweeps in robots assembled with more than 35% foreign components, extending earlier curbs tied to drones and firms such as Huawei and China Telecom.