This week, Donald Trump hit his strongest lead yet in betting markets since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race following Joe Biden’s announced departure. On Sunday at 8 a.m. Eastern Time, Trump’s odds on Polymarket, the blockchain-based predictions marketplace, stands at 59.7%, after briefly crossing the 60% threshold earlier in the week. Harris, in contrast, holds odds of 40.2% according to the bettors on Polymarket. The wager has seen a hefty $$1.92 billion in total volume since it began.
However, whispers of manipulation are circulating, with critics claiming that deep-pocketed investors are influencing Polymarket to swing the odds in favor of one candidate. On Oct. 18, 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported a “mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets” that caused a significant shift in the former president’s favor. The article quoted crypto advocate and Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran, who suggested that the influx of bets might be a strategy to create a perception of momentum for Trump as Election Day approaches.
Cochran also noted that if Trump loses, his boosted odds in the betting markets could fuel claims that the election was unfairly taken from him. This viewpoint faced considerable backlash, with ETF Institute founder Nate Geraci taking to the social media platform X to humorously comment on the theory. “So get this,” Geraci posted. “Some people believe Polymarket bettors are putting real $$$ at risk so Trump has cover to say election was stolen. I’m serious.”
The Cinneamhain Ventures partner responded to Geraci’s X post. “Should probably try reading the context of the full article Nate,” Cochran said. “Which points out the spend from a single source and that dollar per impression, the headlines from those polls are cheaper than regular election ads.” The debate sparked a wave of memes, keeping the conversation buzzing on X over the past few days. It’s not just Trump’s backers facing scrutiny—Harris supporters are also being called out for alleged market manipulation.
On Oct. 20, one user on X posted, “If you’re wondering what is happening to Trump’s odds on Polymarket—This account [called] ‘redegen’ has been pumping Kamala’s odds on Polymarket for the past hour, over $1 million.” Trump’s odds have dipped, and the account shared screenshots from an X user named ‘redegen,’ who claimed that “foreign nationals” are influencing the market and that Polymarket is far from reflecting “reality.” Despite the claims around these theories, many still argued that if people genuinely believe Polymarket’s odds are off, they should put their money down on what they see as an easy win.
“If Polymarket is wrong and manipulated, why bother complaining?” asked the X account Dyme. “Simply go all-in on Kamala while the odds are favorable.”
On the flip side, Trump’s advantage isn’t limited to Polymarket—it’s reflected on various other betting sites and predictions markets as well. On predictit.org, Trump holds a 56% chance, with Harris trailing at 48%. Meanwhile, covers.com gives Trump an implied probability of 63.6%, compared to Harris’s 42.1%. Similarly, betohio.com shows Trump leading with a 55.6% chance, while Harris sits at 50%.
As speculation and accusations of market manipulation persist, the contrasting narratives highlight the broader political and social tensions ahead of the 2024 election. These predictions markets, whether trusted or questioned, reflect not just odds but underlying anxieties and hopes of voters. Regardless of the outcome, the debates and data hint at an increasingly polarized election landscape.
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