In the past week, the BTC price generally showed a fluctuating trend, reaching a high of $88,765 and a low of $81,278, with a maximum weekly volatility of 8% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of April 1, 15:00). Influenced by macro policies, BTC experienced significant price fluctuations last week. The upcoming announcement of the "reciprocal" tariff strategy this week will further impact the trends of crypto assets and global stock indices. The non-farm payroll report and CPI data will also be released soon, which may further affect market sentiment and attitudes towards risk assets.
Market Overview
Global stock markets show significant decline due to Trump's new tariff policy
The Trump team will launch new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2 (Eastern Time). The market is generally concerned that this round of tariffs may exacerbate trade frictions, inflation risks, and drag down economic growth, negatively impacting both the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
As the last trading day of Q1, the evening of March 31 saw a noticeable reaction in global stock markets. The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower across the board, with the Nasdaq index at one point dropping over 2%. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index turned positive, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices narrowed their losses. Tech stocks generally fell sharply, with Tesla and Nvidia down about 4%. European stock markets also fell more than 1% on average.
The market trend on the 31st also marked a sharp turnaround from the brief optimistic sentiment in mid-March. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged to 24, exceeding the 20 threshold that typically alerts the market. Meanwhile, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, with U.S. Treasuries and gold in high demand, and gold prices hitting a historic high of over $3,100 per ounce.
BTC spot ETF sees net outflow for two consecutive months, retail interest remains low
BTC ETFs have experienced net outflows for two consecutive months. Although the inflow of funds year-to-date remains positive ($1.05 billion), the recent performance of ETFs has been notably weak, especially compared to safe-haven assets like gold.
The flow of funds indicates that BTC ETFs are still highly dependent on favorable financing rates and arbitrage opportunities, rather than widespread investor interest. Given the continued low speculative sentiment among retail investors in the crypto market, without strong positive catalysts, it is unlikely that BTC ETF inflows will see substantial recovery in the short term.
Nasdaq 100 index records worst quarterly performance in nearly three years
According to Jinshi News, concerns over the AI bubble have hit the Nasdaq 100 index, which fell 8.3% in Q1, marking its worst quarterly performance in nearly three years. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), and Amazon (AMZN.O) have all dropped at least 20% from their respective historical highs. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 index is also heading towards its worst quarter compared to other global markets since the 1980s.
Data shows that the Nasdaq 100 index peaked in February, more than doubling from its low in December 2022. Although the average valuation of the index has dropped from 27 times to 24 times, its price remains high compared to the average level of about 20 times over the past 20 years.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Trump's remarks heighten market concerns, safe-haven sentiment surges
The S&P 500 index has fallen over 5% this year. According to Bloomberg compiled data, this is the largest quarterly performance gap since 1988. Notably, against the backdrop of a declining stock market, energy, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples companies have performed well in the market. These companies typically pay high dividends and are favored by income-oriented investors when bond yields decline, making them the strongest sectors in the S&P 500 index this quarter.
Before the tariff policy is officially implemented, Wall Street analysts are issuing warnings about U.S. stocks. David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, has lowered his year-end target for the S&P 500 index for the second time this month. He expects the index to close at 5,700 points by the end of the year, down from a previous estimate of 6,200 points. Advisors Asset Management CEO stated, "Traders are nervous, worried that the pace of economic slowdown is far exceeding expectations, and are thus seeking safety by turning to secure assets."
"Reciprocal" tariff policy may dominate global economic sentiment
Trump plans to announce new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2. Based on Trump's previous remarks, reciprocal tariffs will target "all countries," not just the 10 to 15 countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S.
Due to the potentially large scale of these tariffs, the market previously experienced a "panic" sell-off. If this round of tariffs is relatively mild, there is a possibility of a strong rebound in the near future.
Non-farm payroll report and CPI data to be released soon, closely related to interest rate cuts
On April 4, the U.S. non-farm payroll report will be released; on April 10, the March CPI data will be announced. Both pieces of data strongly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Although February's inflation data was relatively mild, if March's inflation data shows a rebound, it could weaken market expectations for recent interest rate cuts. The tightening of market liquidity will increase the volatility of crypto asset prices.
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