The positive correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 has risen to levels not seen since mid-2022, according to Bloomberg data. This close relationship in price movements indicates that macroeconomic factors influencing U.S. stocks are significantly impacting the cryptocurrency sector as well.

The Bloomberg report indicated that the 40-day correlation coefficient between a gauge of the largest 100 cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 now stands at about 0.67, a level only surpassed in the second quarter of 2022 when it reached 0.72. In the second quarter of 2022, bitcoin dropped to approximately $19,000, which coincided with the S&P 500's fall to 3,674.84 points. The equity index has now increased 35% since that time to a current record high of 5702.55 points. Bitcoin BTC +1.10% has appreciated since that time by 69% to a current price of around $63,500.

The data from Bloomberg aligns with a recent report from Coinbase analysts David Han and David Duong, who put bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 at a slightly higher value of 0.69. A correlation coefficient of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation. Conversely, a coefficient of -1 signifies a perfect negative correlation, while a coefficient of 0 indicates no correlation.

FalconX Head of Research David Lawant stated that the positive correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies is expected to persist, especially as indicators suggest the U.S. economy may be heading toward a soft landing. This scenario occurs when monetary policy effectively curbs inflation while sustaining economic growth and avoiding a recession. "Correlations between crypto prices and broad risk asset indices have been on the rise and are likely to remain elevated for a while," Lawant said in an email sent to The Block. He added that a lower interest rate cycle, combined with a soft landing, is currently the base-case scenario for most investors, and would create a novel macro environment for crypto.

"The combination of a favourable election outcome and a more favourable liquidity environment for risk assets could start the next crypto bull market," Lawant added.

Galaxy’s Head of Liquid Active Strategies and Portfolio Manager Chris Rhine highlighted the consolidation in both risk assets and cryptocurrencies, positioning both markets favorably for an upward trend. He noted that positive catalysts are outnumbering negative ones, particularly as risk assets reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis-point rate reduction, with digital asset prices also rising as anticipated due to the easing monetary policy.

Additionally, he mentioned that the narrative surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election has shifted toward becoming a more positive catalyst, especially after presidential candidate Kamala Harris pledged at a fundraiser over the weekend to support the growth of the crypto sector. This development is complemented by Anthony Scaramucci and other crypto advocates collaborating on her campaign’s crypto policies.

"Optimism is building that Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on crypto will be more favorable than the Biden administration's policies, offering a more optimistic regulatory and legislative roadmap for the industry. It is very likely that more large wealth management platforms will approve Bitcoin ETFs in early Q4, further expanding access to digital assets across the trillions of dollars of wealth managed by brokerage firms," Rhine said.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。