Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick has a bold long-term forecast for bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency will reach $500,000 by 2028. He attributes this potential rise to two key factors: growing investor access and declining volatility.

"Access is improving under the [Donald] Trump administration," Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, told The Block in an email Wednesday. "Institutional inflows will continue to gather pace. And vol will gradually come lower as the quality of flows improves and other infrastructure (eg. options markets) expand."

These potential factors are "enough to drive Bitcoin to $500,000 before Trump leaves office," Kendrick said.

Bitcoin is currently trading at about $98,700, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.

Kendrick noted in a new report Wednesday that the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has significantly expanded investor access, bringing in $39 billion in net inflows so far. He expects bitcoin's volatility to decline as the ETF market matures and as financial infrastructure improves — particularly with the expansion of options markets and institutional counterparties.

Gold provides a useful comparison, Kendrick said, pointing to how its price surged 4.3 times after exchange-traded products (ETPs) were introduced in 2004. He expects bitcoin ETFs to follow a similar path but within two years instead of seven.

"As vol falls, Bitcoin's share of an optimized two-asset portfolio with gold increases," Kendrick said. "Investor access and lower vol should lead to price appreciation longer-term as portfolios continue to move towards their optimal/logical state."

Beyond the maturing ETF market, Kendrick sees further improvements under the Trump administration, particularly after the repeal of SAB 121, which lifted accounting restrictions for companies holding digital assets. He also pointed to Trump's executive order to evaluate a national digital asset stockpile, suggesting it could encourage central banks to consider bitcoin investments.

“Given these developments, which are in line with our previous expectations, we continue to target BTC to reach the $200,000 level by year-end 2025. Thereafter, we see BTC reaching levels around $300,000 by end-2026, $400,000 by end-2027 and $500,000 by end-2028, remaining there until end-2029,” Kendrick concluded.

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