#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a 93.1% probability of holding rates steady according to CME's "FedWatch" data. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.9%. While the probability of holding rates steady has slightly decreased after the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, it remains significantly higher than the likelihood of a rate cut. The market expects a higher probability of a rate cut at the March meeting, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to the CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates. This suggests that the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and wait for more economic data to assess the future direction of monetary policy.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of over 90%.
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, but the likelihood is lower than keeping rates unchanged in January.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have risen.
CME's 'Fed Watch' data shows that market expectations for the future direction of Fed interest rates are volatile.