
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Apr 19, 2025 16:56
I think some of the conversations about capital flight are being too binary in thinking the US is the only logical place for global savings. The real problem is that other developed economies have massive and quickly increasing fiscal burdens bearing down upon them, and they must direct capital towards those agendas. These rumblings have been getting louder in recent years, before Trump was elected. Read this excerpt from last years UK pension review where they noted that domestic savers are not investing enough in UK growth and they may need to intervene and force that to happen (pic 1). Go listen to Emmanuel Macron's speech last year in Sorbonne called "Europe: it can die" where he complained about how Europe sends 300B overseas to the United States every year instead of prioritizing investment in their own economies (pic 2).
These countries have started to see that they realization of this problem need more domestic investment, but upending the status quo carries inertia. However the US electing a chaos agent in Donald Trump has accelerated everyone's acceptance of this larger problem of untenable fiscal burdens across the developed world.
The question for global savings going forward is not where will it be treated best- the question for global savings is how long until governments force it to come back home out of survivalist necessity?
UK pension review: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6736181254652d03d5161199/Pensions_Investment_Review_interim_report.pdf
Macron speech: https://geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/26/macron-europe-it-can-die-a-new-paradigm-at-the-sorbonne/
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