Announce the answer: USDC/USDT premium As for why every time there is a discount, there is always a short-term peak, here is my guess: Without incremental funding, USDT It is a stablecoin trading pair that dominates the market price, which means that the BTC/USDT price is the "reference anchor" that truly determines the short-term market price direction. All non USDT stablecoins (such as USDC, DAI, TUSD) are only auxiliary participating funds, not price determinants. So when the main force really wants to smash, it also starts to smash BTC/USDT in the short term, which will cause the price of USDT trading pairs to be relatively lower than USDC (because of active pressure, buying is the opposite) give an example: BTC/USDT price 80000 BTC/USDC price at 80050 → There is room for arbitrage by moving bricks BTC/USDT prices are relatively low, representing funds driving market forces, mainly focused on selling The operational logic of arbitrage funds is as follows: 1. Buy cheap BTC on BTC/USDT at a price of 80000 and pay with USDT 2. Sell BTC at a price of 80050 on the BTC/USDC trading pair to exchange for USDC 3. Sell off the obtained USDC and exchange it for USDT, completing the arbitrage loop So when the USDC/USDT price is below 1, it usually indicates that the main funds driving the market are selling BTC. Conversely, if the price is significantly higher than 1, the probability of bottoming out is also relatively high (as you can see from the picture, the green area is also relatively bottom, so we won't go into it here) So why is USDT mainly used? The main issue is liquidity. Although the market value of USDC continues to rise, the trading volume of spot and contract USDT still accounts for more than 80% of the market, If large funds on BTC need to conduct large-scale operations, USDT will still be the preferred option. USDC/USDT premium We have included the index @ inkarma_ for a long time and it is also one of the components of the market pulse index. In the absence of other financial factors, it can be considered a simple and crude alpha.