This morning's solemn discussion This morning saw a sharp drop, and various communities were very nervous and vigilant. Shage also had a rough discussion about the market: 1. Talk about cycle: After the stagnation of innovation within encryption, both the knockoff cycle and the four-year cycle were broken Now we are following the macro trend and focusing more on the US stock market The proportion of internal driving factors in the industry is relatively small 2. Discussing the Failure of ETH: One unexpected thing in this round is that ETH's fundamentals have collapsed ETH is currently the only ETF through the US spot market after BTC From an external perspective, it is the only two targets in the encrypted world The difficulty lies in the fact that ETH's foundation, project team, and market makers have all failed to take action ETH has been one of the hardest performing public chains and one of the hardest performing knockoffs in the past few months Behind it is the sacrifice of efficiency in the encrypted world, which ensures immutability through strict decentralization On this basis, expand through the patch of layer2 The failure of ETH also basically declares the failure of decentralized collaboration platforms in the encrypted world Decentralization is only valuable for crypto gold positioning like BTC Basically, it can be said that decentralization, apart from issuing assets and supporting transactions, is not suitable for applications 3. Discussing the Failure of the Application Layer: 22 years ago, people thought that the reason why the application layer couldn't be built was due to immature infrastructure and unresolved three difficult problems Now the trilemma has been gradually solved through layer 2 and zkp But the application layer cannot be achieved yet. Logically speaking, it can almost be said that the applications in the encrypted world are just fantasies Decentralization or blockchain technology is just a supplement to web2 technology, and it is difficult to become an independent application Now it seems that all applications on ETH except for matching transactions have failed It seems that the failure rate is 100%, with all deaths Whether it's gaming, socializing, AI, or any other form of B2B They all failed In 2017, it was widely believed in the industry that all types of applications would be redone by blockchain technology 25 years ago, many people already knew that they couldn't do it at all The entire encrypted world now seems to have only two things, BTC being the largest and only store of value Another thing is the plate It is a relatively fair and dynamic place for distributing and playing games around the world 4. Discuss the three core actions: In this round, the core of the correct positive EV is three things Dead Village BTC+Empty Shanzhai+Play Disk The rest should be mostly unnecessary actions Buffett is playing in the US stock market and strongly opposes short selling Because the beta of the US stock market is an unshakable positive trend in Buffett's life Today's knockoffs, billions of them, have almost zero intrinsic value Therefore, we should be more tolerant of short selling 5. Finally, let me add that everyone should not be too pessimistic Even if a bear market like the one in 2022 were to happen again, ETH would find it difficult to cut through again The tariff war has been priced in, and the subsequent macro monetary policy is gradually improving The way to invest is still to be optimistic on the basis of everyone's pessimism.