Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 17, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 52.07% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 67.40% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 95.05% SPX 30D ATM IV: 18.29% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 23.38% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 16.59% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.59% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.33% This week is the "Super Central Banks Week" in March. Not surprisingly, risk aversion still dominates the market this week; whether it is US stocks or cryptocurrencies, in the derivatives market, investors are still actively buying insurance, making put options a relatively expensive and popular choice recently. At the same time, the forward implied yields of BTC and ETH are also declining, which seems to be due to the quarterly rollover, but the reduction of risk premium is also a matter of vigilance. So, is the "overselling" of risky assets over? From the current derivatives market, the overselling of GLD and SPY has nearly ended, but BTC, ETH and QQQ are still facing significant overselling risks. Implied Probability Density Function (PDF) and Implied Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) are one of the more effective observation indicators of overselling risk. In the case of significant overselling risk, the probability of the price remaining at the current position is usually less than 50%. When the probability is significantly higher than 50%, it can be considered that investors expect that the underlying asset still has room to rise. It is clear that investors have relatively good expectations for GLD and SPY. The implicit expectations in their consensus indicate that GLD has a probability of more than 54% to rise further in the near term, and the probability of further rise will increase over time. SPY has a probability of further rise in the near term of 52.91%. However, its probability of rise has not increased as much as GLD over time, indicating that investors are still more optimistic about macro assets rather than stock indices under the uncertainty of the future. In contrast, investors implicitly believe that QQQ has a probability of rising less than 50% in the near term, and even in May, its probability of rising is only slightly above 50%, which means that investors believe that QQQ's consolidation period has not yet ended - overselling risks still exist. For cryptocurrencies, investors also hold expectations similar to those of QQQ. Investors believe that the probability of BTC price rising above $85k in December is only about 48%, while ETH has a probability of about 50% to stabilize near the current price level. Although investors' long-term bullish sentiment has not changed much, considering the impact of recent risk aversion and the high volatility of crypto assets, investors are still pricing in significant overselling risks, which is what we need to be vigilant about in the following weeks.