Do you still dare to invest in the cryptocurrency and US stock markets in this situation? To be honest, in the current situation, I won't be able to play basketball, mainly because: 1. The core is Trump's stinking mouth, which is caused by the recent market slump. Today's tariff increase, tomorrow's no tariff increase, and the day after tomorrow's 250% increase... The unexpected chaos has made the US stock market and the crypto market fall faster. 2. Some views in the market believe that Trump deliberately creates chaos and deliberately lowers the stock price, so as to reduce expected income, inflation and interest rates, whether intentionally or unintentionally, but in real time. 3. The federal government has a debt of $37 trillion, and this year's debt interest is expected to be $1.3 trillion. Old Trump will pay back billions of dollars every day when he opens his eyes. The federal government's revenue for the year 2024 is $4.9 trillion, with a total expenditure of $6.75 trillion and a deficit of $1.8 trillion. The interest on debt accounts for more than 26% of the fiscal revenue, and there is a new deficit every year. At the speed of this snowball, Trump will not work for four years, and the US government will face debt default. So Trump and Musk are very eager to cut the spending of $1 trillion. In addition, they need to replace short-term treasury bond with long-term treasury bond. However, the current benchmark interest rate in the United States is 4.5%. Before conducting debt swaps, lower interest rates first. If interest rates are lowered by 100 basis points and debt swaps are carried out, approximately $400 billion in interest can be saved annually. 4. Trump's policies are constantly changing, and the inflation data after the implementation of tariffs has not yet been shown. Once inflation increases in the future, the increase in business costs will inevitably affect economic development, which means that recession is possible. Fundamental changes may lead to further decline in the US stock market, and at the same time, it will also bring the cryptocurrency circle. 5. Although recent macroeconomic data has led traders to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts no less than twice, if inflation intensifies and the data is revealed after tariffs are officially implemented, will this prediction be changed, or even a rate hike? No one knows, there is too much uncertainty. 6. Why is suppressing stock prices so important for curbing inflation? Recently, it was revealed that the consumption proportion of the top 10% of income earners in the United States is 60%. Rich people are getting richer through investment, and it is almost impossible to reduce inflation without lowering their assets. And according to past patterns, after interest rate cuts, the US stock market will rise, and inflation will rise again. While cutting interest rates, we also need to lower the stock price. Only by Trump's mouth can we continue to talk nonsense and create chaos, and bring the economy into recession. There is still room for decline in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency industry. So, if a gentleman doesn't stand under a dangerous wall, I won't bargain, but in terms of fixed investment strategy, the cost-effectiveness is still very high at present. This article is sponsored by Gateio | @ Gateio_zh