
TraderS | 缺德道人|Mar 10, 2025 04:59
We talked about a lot of topics in Space over the weekend, so let's summarize some of the more popular ones.
Recently, the market sentiment has been pessimistic, with both the cryptocurrency industry and the US stock market experiencing significant fluctuations. Even conspiracy theories have become rampant, but in fact, the trend has not changed. Trump can only follow the trend regardless of whether he is active or passive. Individuals can't resist the trend. It just happens that Trump's restless and showy personality easily provokes the market's already sensitive nerves, and may even die of stress at any time. This goes back to last year's election, when Trump was elected, the strategy of quickly moving in and out of the deep V adjustment as soon as possible and leaving the pot to former Democratic Biden to provide the basis. After all, it's too late, and it's difficult to blame Biden again after he leaves office for too long.
At present, the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the 3.19 meeting, so the next window is in May. During this period, with Trump's troubles (such as the uncertainty of political and monetary policy, tariff war, the retreat of international institutions, and contractive conservative territorial claims), the market may collapse. If the market really collapses, it would be reasonable for the Federal Reserve to come out as a white knight to rescue the market, but if it doesn't collapse, it will continue to drag on until June. The overall market was not very optimistic in the first half of the year. The market can only be forced to enter the intraday trading period of the contract, and MEME occasionally releases some insightful and narrative speed reports.
The US stock market has been supported by seven sisters for nearly two years, but after the AI foam was punctured by the concept of China represented by deepseek, the growth was sluggish. Both TSMC's migration to the United States and the recent poor performance of Nvidia 5 Series graphics cards. And the essence of these situations is that concepts are too far from implementation, and finance is too far from industry. Manufacturing products honestly, how can there be speculation, harvest, and wealth transfer come quickly?
Taking Apple as an example, apart from the M4 version of Mac Mini, both iPhone and iPad have been experiencing weak updates recently, resulting in a slowdown in demand for higher process chips and making it difficult to support further significant stock price growth. On the other hand, electric vehicles represented by Xiaomi Su 7 Ultra have strong demand growth and a much longer and more complex industrial chain than mobile phones, which can drive many suppliers to develop together, promote employment, and lower industrial product prices to actually improve people's quality of life. So the last entrepreneurial venture that Lebus gambled his life's credit is far from comparable to that of Cook, a successful leader in industry chain management. If Steve Jobs knew, he would also sigh for the failure of Apple's car manufacturing transformation. But Xiaomi's success is built on China's mature industrial chain, and even Tesla was revived by the Shanghai Gigafactory. And now the rust belt in the United States cannot support the country's rise in the field of new energy vehicles within 20 years.
We can see AI as Zeus or Dragon King, it will mate and graft with all traditional industries, generate different offspring, mutate and promote the final physical industry landing, and improve productivity.
Only by developing technology and continuously improving productivity, and accumulating the elements of the next industrial revolution, can we have the future. At present, only AI landing and traditional asset on chain RWA can increase users in the new track.
The short-term sharp rise of financial products, such as stocks and digital currencies, is in essence a concentrated and rapid advance for the future, and foam need time to digest. Whether it is the Federal Reserve, Wall Street financial capital, or cryptocurrency market makers, any involvement in volatility or peak shaving is a broad form of market making.
Whether it is the recent rush of the United States to withdraw from the Russia Ukraine issue (cost reduction), withdraw from NATO (cost reduction), lay off employees in DOGE (efficiency increase), disrupt the Middle East by selling more oil (revenue increase), or increase tariffs (revenue increase) and occupy Greenland (open source), or BlackRock buying ports from Li Ka shing (revenue increase and strategic location), these are all tactics of first withdrawing its fists and treating internal injuries with conservatism, and increasing internal strength cultivation.
So it is obvious that the world will evolve from globalization to a state of tripartite division and tripartite dominance. The morality of the Spring and Autumn period will turn into the annexation of the Warring States period, ultimately leading to global unification.
In this process, the occupation and utilization of resources will be enormous, and ultimately will shift towards increasing revenue due to the inability to reduce expenses too much. But as long as there is no complete revolution, in the situation where Mr. Huang's cake cannot be moved, we can only raise the cost of living for the common people (leeks), and make them suffer even more (leeks), calling Wall Street (market makers) to resist. Last year's Japanese rice and this year's American eggs are clear evidence of inward facing cuts.
So how should we respond? We can only watch more and move less, keep the capital, and wait for the wind to come and make a comeback.
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