
Yuyue|Mar 06, 2025 15:41
Why is it said that there may be an alpha in an area that nobody cares about? How to determine if a project still has a chance? This is a retrospective review
·@LumozOrg rebounded threefold from its bottom after falling to 110M in January, but it is difficult to capture this coin. I will review the analysis framework and evaluation aspects needed to grasp it
Determine the lifecycle of a coin
-Firstly, based on the unlocking status of coins, they are generally classified into the following categories:
1. Pre TGE
2. Newly released TGE coins
3. New coins between TGE and the first unlocking
4. Start unlocking old coins
5. Fully unlocked and circulating old coins
-For different types of coins, there are different strategies and policies, and the selection preferences are also different. There are usually two ways to obtain unlocking information:
1. Ask VC friends
2. Check the unlock information website
——Here, MOZ belongs to the category of 3- "Next New Coins between TGE and the First Unlock"
First level investment cost
-Therefore, we need to understand that there is still a certain reference mechanism for the cost of primary investment before the first unlocking
-This brings us to the second question: Is it a good entry point if the secondary price falls below the primary cost of 120M in mid January?
Enter the next step
Team background check: real name? How is the team structure? Is it still in continuous operation?
In fact, for many small currencies and projects, the first level cost is just a reference frame, because there are too many projects that endlessly crash after TGE, and VC does not have actual control over the projects after obtaining financing
However, the Lumaz team has a real name and a face to face. Since the downturn in the market in recent months, they have continued to operate, which is enough to stand out among a number of projects
What is the basis for this judgment
--In mid January, I took advantage of an AI agent
--Created a chain for uxlink
--I launched my own chain in February
Congratulations to them for recently launching the Bybit Listing Billboard. By now, smart UUs should be able to have their own framework for analyzing new cryptocurrency projects!
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