2025 OKG Research Special Topic "Trumponomics" 5: "Success or Failure or Failure"? What game is Trump playing from tariffs to encrypted reserves? TrumpTariffs In the previous article on this topic, "Can the crypto market break new highs with the arrival of a new round of liquidity?", we proposed that the market should focus on real liquidity (TGA can be monitored in the short term) rather than market news noise. The false prosperity of "just talking without practicing" cannot be sustained. The tariff policy, as the first big stick to fall, is having a huge impact on the global risk market with "American characteristics". Why do both Trump 1.0 and 2.0 have a special fondness for seemingly destructive policies? We will take tariffs and trade as the main axis to analyze the profound meaning of Trump's "left-hand tariffs, right-hand encryption". one ⃣ Tariffs='chips' Despite being destructive, tariffs are just the beginning, and the Trump administration is using them to create economic uncertainty in exchange for bargaining chips. 🔹 The core of this tariff game is not only the flow of goods, but also involves technology blockade, capital flow, and currency competition. The essence of a trade war is no longer limited to tariff barriers, but rather a deep intervention in the global financial system. 🔹 Further exacerbating the challenge for the Federal Reserve - how to control inflation without triggering a severe economic recession. Damaged consumer confidence may drag down the economy, while inflationary pressures limit the Fed's room for interest rate cuts, ultimately leading to further tightening of liquidity and putting the Fed in a dilemma. two ⃣ Unconventional means in extraordinary times=encrypted assets The turbulence in the US financial market is reflecting the accelerated loss of 'national confidence'. @Paul Krugman wrote, "Since coming to power five weeks ago, Elon Musk and Donald Trump have been wreaking havoc on multiple fronts - including rapidly destroying America's influence in the world When the national credit system begins to collapse, capital will not remain stagnant, but will seek new ways of circulation. The 'underground financial system' has become a spontaneous hedge against the collapse of the traditional financial system. For example, in the 1980s, during the era when "one Tokyo could buy America," there were as many as 17000 black markets in major Japanese cities. Both "black market" and "financial liberalization" play crucial roles in trade wars. Moving to the present, the Trump administration announced the establishment of a national reserve of encrypted assets, which appears to be a financial innovation, but is more likely to be an "unconventional countermeasure in extraordinary times". reason: 🔹 Faced with the credit damage to the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy reaching its limit, the United States urgently needs new chips to maintain global capital trust. Cryptocurrency assets may be this' quasi financial weapon ': once strategic reserves are controlled, governments will have greater operational space in global capital flows; 🔹 The trend of "de dollarization" in the market has begun to emerge. If the trade war escalates, countries will inevitably accelerate the allocation of non US dollar assets to hedge against risks in the US dollar system. At the beginning of 2025, the steady rise in gold prices is clear evidence. In the context of accelerating de dollarization, if encrypted assets can maintain true decentralization rather than being controlled by a single country, they may gain new geopolitical premiums in the global financial game. CryptoNews Bitcoin2025