欧K
欧K|Feb 28, 2025 04:40
Regarding the discussion on whether it is a bull market or a bear market, some people may be concerned and share their personal opinions. Firstly, in terms of the definition of bull and bear markets, where does it fall to be considered a bear market? How long is a bear market when it falls? Everyone has different opinions, there is no need to argue. So the definition is not important, the important thing is to focus on how to recognize investment opportunities in this circle. Some situations that have already occurred and will continue to expand are: 1. BTC is being securitized and institutionalized, and there is a strong consensus that whether it is national reserves, exchange stocks, or mining costs, they will all be considered a golden period in the next few years. Therefore, regardless of whether BTC is in a bull or bear market, if it falls to 60000-70000, it will be the mining price, and further down it will be the discounted price. 2. The long bull market in the cryptocurrency industry cannot rely solely on emotions. Emotions have cycles, and now it has entered a bear market cycle - there is no need to look at any indicators, as those who stay at the forefront of the community have long felt it. At 28000, I told a story about a young girl who was in her prime and could ignite a flame, which was the foundation of the bull market at that time. Today, the market is like a tired cow and horse, no matter what stimulation it may bring, it just wants to lie down and not move anymore. 3. The cryptocurrency industry relies on the construction of value, while the construction of price is currently not seen much, which is also the reason why altcoins are powerless. Looking at the mainstream, trends, and chip structure, why not buy altcoins? Because 80% of each coin needs to be gradually sold to you - selling coins is the only thing the project team can do, so they can pull the market and raise prices, but it's not easy for us to speculate. In the future, there will be value, but it is likely to be difficult in the short term - especially in first tier investments where project valuations are not low. For example, bot tools may still be valued at tens of millions of dollars, while some with large capital endorsements may be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the reapers are still unwilling to leave. Now that they have fallen a lot, is it a bear? No. People who refuse to leave are everywhere. So, I'm not really concerned about whether it's a bull or a bear right now. This definition doesn't have any value to me. I just made a decision based on the situation in the cryptocurrency industry: 1. I hold two parts of BTC, one part is not moving, and I believe he will put $1 million into a cold wallet; Part of it is kept on the exchange, ready to be used to buy knockoffs or exchange for U. This part kept coming out when I mentioned in the group two weeks ago that 'that could be a bear market'. If there is a sudden reversal and everyone becomes emotional again, it doesn't matter. I just need to buy it again. This part is not for making the most money, but when we are more certain. If you are firmly optimistic about the BTC bull market and long-term value, then you and I share the same strategy for our cold wallet. If you are looking at the bull market across all positions, including currencies other than BTC, then we are definitely not consistent. I have doubts about other values, and I don't necessarily have to make the most profit. When I am in a downturn or in a bad mood, I only want to buy the one with the least loss. 2. I try to think about the layout of global assets and go fishing in places with abundant fish. 3. I am seeking a low drawdown for the entire position, such as in the worst case scenario, it is best not to have a floating loss of more than 20% for the entire position. In terms of calculation, I have to use more U to arbitrage and manage finances. A 10% annualization is very bullish, so I can still achieve a floating loss of 20% for Bitcoin and stocks, and there will be enough U in some black swans to buy at the bottom in the future.
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