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DC大于C|Feb 20, 2025 06:38
Iron pillar brother said it very well. Let's talk about the concentration of funds in plain language and apply the "Zhuang" thinking to the allocation of funds throughout the entire macro cycle. Especially the 'knockoff season' that my friends want
Before speaking, let me clarify one point: Crypto is the ultimate risk asset, even if BTC passes through a spot ETF.
Assuming that institution A (hereinafter referred to as "A") has funds ranging from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars. This fund placed in crypto is already a very powerful market maker institution. Having our own macro and market research team, we carefully study every move we make.
(Starting from 2022, it may be rough, mainly explaining the general logic. Thank you.)
Starting the interest rate hike cycle, funds are pursuing safer and more stable assets, while also choosing safe haven options such as gold and US bonds.
During the US midterm elections and the end of the first phase of interest rate hikes, OpenAi, the US technology market, released chatgpt. According to research, A has allocated some funds to buy AI technology stocks and a small amount of BTC, with a large position still in US Treasury bonds.
Suspending interest rate hikes, coupled with BlackRock's application for a BTC spot ETF, it is expected that interest rates will be reduced until A continues to invest in AI technology stocks and BTC, with BTC still being the smallest portion of the position. After all, stocks are the core high-quality assets of risk assets, especially AI.
The interest rate reduction cycle officially began. With the presidential election of the United States, Trump took office to be friendly to encryption and AI. At that time, A continued to increase investment in AI and BTC, but because of the scale contraction, contraction, and large positions in U.S. bonds, gold, etc. A saw that our SOL chain was hot, so I went to make a plate and play with it. After playing it, I released it. Wow, it turns out that the hot money in this market is so easy to make, but the market is still tight. Let's wait for the opportunity.
What will happen next is to continue cutting interest rates and end the balance sheet reduction. A's choice is that before the expected further interest rate cuts and end of the balance sheet reduction, A will definitely have another wave in the risk market and accumulate more cash,
Waiting for a wave of bottom fishing in the gold market, or without a gold market, in anticipation of loose expectations and expansion of the balance sheet, increasing risk appetite expectations will definitely increase the risk of building positions in high-quality assets in the market.
Waiting for expansion, limited easing, or the real-time arrival of QE is the real wave of risky assets at the end, which is the crazy moment of Crypto.
The uncertainty of the game is still high now, let's wait for the certainty of the game to truly come.
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