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Haotian | CryptoInsight|Feb 16, 2025 05:14
Looking at the piles of AI Agent projects (19B-6B) that have almost hit rock bottom, there is a sense of collective annihilation and death pressure. Apart from heartache, many people are lost in confusion. What's wrong with the AI Agent sector? After reflection and review, let me share some opinions:
1) It is common for corpses to form mountains in the early stages of new trends, as the speed at which troublemakers generate new assets far exceeds the speed at which innovative projects are implemented and realized. Most people are forced to "PVP" among a bunch of unverified concepts. Although we, as research bloggers, try our best to explore valuable projects with a PVE mentality, we cannot escape the fact that the AI Agent narrative revolution is still a masquerade ball disguised as AI MEME.
However, the FOMO or pessimistic sentiment of individual investors cannot determine the final outcome. Once the AI agent runs out of the sustainable new music high paradigm, the choice of main funds can prove whether the AI agent can succeed.
2) Backed by the historic integration of AI and Crypto, AI agents cannot be falsified. In the short term, many people will criticize the concept of web3's AI agent hype based on the practical value of web2's AI agent applications, which is understandable. However, the application driven core of AI agents will not change, except that web2 has chosen business models such as API calling and user payment, and web3 has chosen tokenomics. So, all abstract concepts above AI agents will be validated in monolithic AI application scenarios.
For example, for DeFai type AI agents, using TEEs to implement self managed assets is only the first step. Whether AI can autonomously translate natural semantic understanding into actual Swap, Staking, and other operations is the second step. However, the real logic to verify the maturity of the business model is the AI agent locking in the growth of TVL, the increase of TXs for users to perform operations based on AI agents, and the optimization of user experience for AI agents to perform on chain transactions (gas friction, profit probability, etc.). Before these cannot be verified, it is difficult to be 100% certain which project will come out;
Before that, let go of the anxiety of missing out on MEME and focus on the innovative landing benefits of some value projects, until a truly verifiable business innovation point emerges and a mature "foundation" that can accumulate abundant commercial value is formed.
3) AI agents seem to have been subdivided into many sub fields including monolithic AI, framework standards, DeFai, etc., but they have basically not deviated from the temperament of a "grass platform team".
Although no innovation field can escape the chaotic state of the "chaotic era" in the early stages, the innovation in the products behind the AI16Z open-source spirit totem is weak, The challenges of mature agent implementation behind the virtual innovation, as well as the market expectations of 30-300M that can be brought by one dev, one repo, and one potential commercial roadmap, are obviously biased towards "irrationality".
It should be said that the incorrect valuation and pricing system, incorrect PVP AliExpress Fomo environment, and inadequate confidence in value innovation have collectively caused the short-term collapse of AI agents. Fortunately, the market expectation for AI agents is still there, and although the iron blooded holders are in pain, they are still holding on. Many powerful, technologically advanced, and high threshold entrepreneurial "regular military forces" are running into the market, such as: Arc's continuous pursuit and challenge of AI16Z, and so on.
Obviously, the AI Agent web3 project model, which relied on AI Agent narrative for rapid asset issuance and MEME based gameplay in the early stages, has been proven false. The next wave of innovation is accumulating strength, and this market cooling off period may be the time window for investment research and exploration of potential projects.
Note: Blood flows like a river, the dawn has not yet arrived. In the comment section, say, do you want to continue fighting and staying behind?
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