Seizing an excellent trading opportunity by taking advantage of the divergence between US Treasury yields and Bitcoin price signals! The current market is highly uncertain, with conflicting economic data and a constant oscillation between good and bad news. For cryptocurrency traders who are not familiar with macro analysis, using US bond yields to guide trading and seize opportunities for signal divergence can help them better grasp market fluctuations and avoid risks. In the current monetary policy environment, the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate cuts mainly due to concerns that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an upward trend in inflation. In this context, Bitcoin, as a risky asset, is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity, and market liquidity expectations greatly affect the price trend of Bitcoin. In contrast, the US Treasury market, due to its large trading volume and numerous professional investors, has far greater market efficiency and information transmission capabilities than the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, changes in US Treasury yields can to some extent reflect the strengthening or weakening of expectations of future interest rate cuts, thereby reflecting changes in liquidity expectations. US Treasury yields and liquidity expectations The yield of US Treasury bonds is an important indicator of the market's future interest rate trends and economic prospects. When the market expects an early interest rate cut or an improvement in liquidity, US bond yields tend to decline; On the contrary, when the expectation of interest rate cuts is postponed or liquidity tightens, US bond yields will rise. As Bitcoin is a risky asset, its price is often greatly affected by liquidity, so changes in US bond yields can be an important auxiliary indicator for judging the trend of Bitcoin prices. Signal divergence and trading risk In actual trading, if there is a divergence between US bond yields and Bitcoin price signals, special caution is needed. This divergence often means that the cryptocurrency market may be releasing signals to attract long or short positions, which can easily lead retail investors to enter at the wrong time and suffer significant losses. For example, when there was a contradiction between the non farm payroll and unemployment rate data last week, the US Treasury yield showed a significant increase, indicating that the market's expectation of interest rate cuts was delayed and the window for liquidity improvement was postponed. However, the price of Bitcoin briefly rose during this period, forming a bullish signal, and then rapidly fell, leading many investors into the trap of chasing after high prices. Similarly, after the release of PPI data last night, US bond yields fell sharply, indicating that the market expects a more loose monetary policy in the future and marginal improvement in liquidity. In this context, although the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated downward for a while, the overall market environment has changed, bringing opportunities for Bitcoin to go long. Trading Strategy Suggestions Pay attention to changes in US bond yields: closely observe the trend of US bond yields as an important basis for judging changes in liquidity expectations. The increase or decrease in yield often indicates a market adjustment in expectations of interest rate cuts, thereby affecting the prices of risky assets such as Bitcoin. Warning signal divergence: When there is a significant deviation between US Treasury yields and Bitcoin price trends, vigilance should be heightened. Avoid blindly operating solely based on the volatility of the cryptocurrency market itself, while ignoring the more effective signals of the US Treasury market. Avoiding the trap of attracting both long and short positions: Based on the release of key economic data such as non farm employment, unemployment rate, PPI, etc., determine whether there are signals of attracting long or short positions in the market. For example, during periods of non farm data contradictions, the brief rise of Bitcoin may only be a surface phenomenon; In the case of favorable PPI data and declining returns, there may be a better time to go long. conclusion In the current environment where the Federal Reserve has suspended interest rate cuts and is concerned about rising inflation, US bond yields, as an important indicator reflecting liquidity expectations, have significant reference value compared to Bitcoin trading. By observing the relationship between US Treasury yields and Bitcoin prices, investors can better grasp market fluctuations, avoid bullish and bearish signals in the cryptocurrency market, and achieve more rational trading operations. Whether it is short-term fluctuations or long-term trends, grasping the changes in liquidity expectations is necessary to better cope with market risks and capture trading opportunities.