Chaotic employment data, with 143000 new non farm payroll jobs added in January, lower than expected by 170000, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.0%, revised upwards by a net increase of 100000 jobs in November and December. The decline in new employment accompanied by a decrease in unemployment rate has disrupted the market. Personal understanding: 1. An important aspect of January employment data is the annual benchmark revision for household surveys. This benchmark revision will re anchor the non institutional resident population of the survey to the newly released census forecast, leading to revisions in labor force, household employment, and other indicator levels. After the annual benchmark for household surveys is revised, it is expected that the total labor force will increase by 2.5 million people, which will result in an increase in the denominator when calculating the unemployment rate. The newly added non-agricultural employment refers to the direct statistics of the monthly increase in salaried personnel in enterprises, government departments, etc., while the unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of people who are actively looking for jobs but have not yet found them to the total labor force through household surveys. So there has been a decrease in new employment, but the unemployment rate has also decreased. 2. From a data perspective, although the newly added employment is lower than expected, it is still relatively stable, especially with higher than expected hourly wages year-on-year and month on month, which means that companies have paid better costs when recruiting personnel. 3. But the market also knows that non farm payroll data is prone to being revised (upward or downward) in the next two months and may not be reliable. This time, it was revised that the total number of new jobs created over the past 24 years was reduced by 600000, far exceeding the expected reduction of 260000. If the reference value of monthly data is not high, the market prefers to look at the overall data. The decrease of 600000 new jobs in 24 years also indicates that the labor market may not be as good as the January data reflects, so the expectation of interest rate cuts has been advanced from June to May. 4. Of course, as Powell said at the interest meeting in January, the labor and employment market is not the primary concern of the Federal Reserve, and the importance of inflation data has been raised, especially now after Trump came to power, the uncertainty of policy has also brought inflation uncertainty. The inflation data for next week is particularly important, with inflation rising in October and November, and the December data released in January, although in line with expectations, continues to rise. So it depends on whether the inflation in January continues to rise or whether it can dispel market concerns about a sustained rebound.