An important difference between the Federal Reserve in 2019 and 2025: At that time, Trump's aggressive trade policies intensified concerns about economic growth, capital expenditures, and market sentiment, leading to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Especially when the economy approaches full employment, the inflation level is low and goes against the expectations of the central bank and blue chip companies that inflation should rise. But today, after experiencing a period of high inflation, trade uncertainty may lead to the opposite situation, causing the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the absence of consensus on whether to cut interest rates (this uncertainty is mainly reflected in differences over the inflation outlook and whether their policy stance has sufficient tightening effect). The alternative scenarios predicted in the 2019 Blue Book provide us with a perspective on how models interpret trade wars. For example, in June 2019, a trade war scenario foreshadowed a short-term increase of 200 basis points in core PCE and a 50 basis point increase in unemployment rate.