Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Price Still in Bargain Zone as US Jobs Report Sparks Rate Cut Hopes”
Key Points Summary:
According to Fidelity analysis, Bitcoin's mid-term outlook has entered the "optimistic" zone, with the institution noting that Bitcoin is showing a trend of being "undervalued."
Fidelity uses the 'Bitcoin Yardstick' indicator — a ratio derived from Bitcoin's market capitalization divided by its hash rate. A lower ratio indicates that Bitcoin's valuation relative to its network energy security is "cheaper."
In the first quarter of 2025, this indicator remained between -1 to 3 standard deviations, cooling from the overheated levels of the fourth quarter of 2024. The number of trading days above 2 standard deviations decreased from 22 days to 15 days, with no days exceeding 3 standard deviations, indicating a significant reduction in valuation pressure on Bitcoin relative to its network strength.
The investment institution pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in an "acceleration phase" — during this phase, it is not uncommon for prices to reach new historical highs, but it also warns of a potential "blow-off top" scenario.
Data shows that the proportion of illiquid supply has risen from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply has decreased by 4%, indicating that holders are increasingly inclined towards long-term positions. Currently, the Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio is still 16% lower than the peak in 2017.
Based on this perspective, Cointelegraph reported that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF recorded a massive inflow of $970.9 million on April 28, 2025, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since the product's launch in January 2024. Since April 22, IBIT has accumulated over $4.5 billion in net inflows, contrasting sharply with the market trend of outflows from competing products like Fidelity's FBTC and ARKB. Currently, IBIT's assets under management have surpassed $54 billion, capturing 51% of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
JOLTS Data Boosts Bitcoin Trend
The March 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of job openings fell sharply from 7.57 million in February to 7.19 million, below the market expectation of 7.48 million. The lower-than-expected JOLTS data suggests a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which would weaken the dollar and boost risk assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, it would indicate a strong economy, potentially delaying rate cuts and suppressing cryptocurrency prices. With federal layoffs reaching their highest level since 2020, market expectations are slightly leaning towards a dovish stance.
Economist and Bitcoin commentator Alex Kruger noted that the JOLTS data is a short-term positive for Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin, as a "hybrid of risk assets and gold," is likely to benefit from the easing of trade tensions following Trump's 90-day tariff suspension period (ending July 8).
The analyst posted on the X platform predicting that market focus may shift to corporate earnings reports from companies like Caterpillar and the performance of tech stocks, while closely monitoring next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting — where Powell may signal an early rate cut.
Kruger warned that the third quarter may see economic slowdown leading to market volatility, but he emphasized that Bitcoin's unique risk-reward ratio will outperform overbought altcoins.
Related: Reports indicate that the U.S. Senate Majority Leader is expected to vote on the stablecoin bill by May 26.
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