Original Title: "On-chain 'Fusion' of Cryptocurrency: Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance Intensifies, Data Reveals a Solid Blueprint for the Next Bull Run? | WTR 4.28"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
From April 21 to April 28 this week, the highest price of the ice sugar orange was around $95,758, and the lowest was close to $85,144, with a fluctuation range of about 12.46%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around $92,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.53 million coins;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.72 million coins;
90,000-100,000 approximately 2.19 million coins;
• The probability of not breaking below 75,000-80,000 in the short term is 80%;
• Among them, the probability of not breaking above 95,000-100,000 in the short term is 50%.
Important News
Economic News
• Key Data Forecast for This Week:
◦ Wednesday will announce Q1 GDP (previous value 2.4%, expected to drop significantly to 0.4%)
◦ Friday will announce non-farm employment (previous value 228,000, expected to drop to 135,000) and unemployment rate (previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%)
◦ Wednesday will also have core PCE (previous value 2.6%, expected 3.2%), and JOLTs job openings on Tuesday.
• Overall expectations are pessimistic: The economic and employment data expectations in the U.S. this week are generally poor, with significant declines in GDP and non-farm expectations.
• Recession concerns: Barclays questions whether the U.S. can avoid an economic recession this year, believing this increases the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
• Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy:
◦ Policy Criticism: Federal Reserve governor candidate Kevin Warsh harshly criticizes the current predicament of the Federal Reserve as "self-inflicted," arguing that it needs to face strict questioning and oversight, and undergo a strategic reset to regain credibility.
◦ Quiet Period: The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period before the May 7 interest rate meeting, with the market expecting this meeting to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time.
◦ Rate Cut Expectations: The market has strong expectations for a rate cut, but there are differences in timing.
▪ LSEG data shows that the expectation for a rate cut in July has been fully digested, while there is still a possibility of a rate cut in June.
▪ CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in May is below 10%, with a probability of 60-70% in June, and July has been fully priced in by the market.
◦ Reasons for Rate Cuts in the Market: In addition to recession concerns, U.S. banks warn that the dollar is in a long-term depreciation channel, and funds will continue to withdraw from the U.S. until the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
▪ Economist Javier Bianchi believes tariffs are a negative demand shock (implying deflation), and the Federal Reserve must cut rates to avoid more severe economic consequences.
• Tariff Impact:
◦ Barclays points out that recent relatively mild tariff rhetoric from Trump has temporarily calmed the market, but the outcome remains highly uncertain.
◦ Economists believe tariffs are a negative demand shock with deflationary effects, which is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates.
• Dollar Outlook:
◦ U.S. banks warn that the dollar is in a long-term depreciation channel.
Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News
1. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow:
◦ Market sentiment warms up: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index rises to 54 (neutral). CryptoQuant's bull market index reaches 60, indicating a resurgence of optimistic sentiment.
◦ Capital flows into the cryptocurrency market: Analyst ali_charts states that nearly $9 billion flowed into the cryptocurrency market in the past week, indicating a rebound in interest. Matrixport observes initial signs of a warming trend in the conversion of dollars to cryptocurrencies, with improved liquidity.
◦ Growth of Stablecoins: Tether issued an additional $1 billion USDT on April 28. The total market value of stablecoins increased by 1.61% to $238.101 billion in the past 7 days.
◦ Increased Demand: Analysts believe that the demand for liquidity in BTC and stablecoins has increased again.
2. Cryptocurrency Market (BTC):
◦ Price Performance: (BTC) price rebounds to the range of $93,000 to $95,000.
◦ Active Short-term Traders: IntoTheBlock data shows a significant increase in short-term trader positions in BTC last week, indicating a rebound in speculative demand, which may signal the beginning of a broader upward trend.
◦ Market Expectations: Bitfinex analysts point out that the market increasingly expects BTC to reach higher price levels in the second quarter of 2025.
3. Cryptocurrency (ETF):
◦ BTC Spot ETF: Last week, cumulative net inflows reached $3.0629 billion. BlackRock's IBIT saw net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, during which it increased its holdings of BTC worth $1.6 billion. The increase in ETF inflows is seen as a reflection of moderate optimism in the market.
◦ ETH Spot ETF: Last week, cumulative net inflows reached $157.1 million. Grayscale discussed staking regulatory issues for ETH ETP with the SEC, proposing to amend application documents to allow staking.
◦ XRP Futures ETF: The SEC approved three XRP futures ETFs, which are scheduled to be listed on April 30, 2025.
4. Regulation and Policy:
◦ U.S. Federal Level (SEC):
▪ SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce criticized the current chaotic regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. (like "playing lava floor games in the dark"), calling for the establishment of clear compliance channels and guidelines as soon as possible.
▪ SEC approved XRP futures ETF.
▪ SEC discussed ETH ETF staking issues with Grayscale.
◦ U.S. State Level: Two BTC reserve bills in Arizona are scheduled for a third reading, and if passed, will become the first state to establish BTC reserves.
5. Others:
◦ Hong Kong Investment Scam: Hong Kong police warn to be cautious of cryptocurrency-related investment scams on social media platforms.
◦ Market Outlook: The market anticipates that after a (possible) pause in rate cuts, cryptocurrency assets will gradually heat up in the summer.
Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the likelihood of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises
Long-term Insights
• Short-term holders' realized price
• On-chain depth chart of buying and selling
• Non-liquid long-term whales
• U.S. spot ETF flow
• Large net transfer volume on trading platforms
(Below image: Short-term holders' realized price)
On average, the recent group of investors entering the market is currently in a profitable state. This greatly alleviates the potential selling pressure in the market, as short-term speculators (at $93,600) do not have urgent needs to break even or stop loss, but may enhance their confidence in holding coins or add to their positions due to profits. This is a positive signal for market sentiment and a healthy state of short-term holders.
(Below image: On-chain depth chart of buying and selling)
This intuitively reflects the current on-chain supply-demand structure of the market. A large amount of on-chain chip buying indicates good market acceptance and depth, with strong willingness to support during pullbacks.
(Below image: Non-liquid long-term whales)
This again confirms that the speed at which crypto assets transition from a tradable state to a long-term locked state is extremely fast and shows no signs of slowing down. It reflects a deep, sustained, and strong accumulation behavior in the market, with "active supply" being rapidly withdrawn from the market, and the tightening effect on the supply side is increasingly intensifying, which is an extremely important bullish fundamental for the mid to long term.
(Below image: U.S. spot ETF flow)
The new purchasing demand from this key compliance channel of the U.S. spot ETF has not only returned but also maintains considerable strength and continuity. This force directly and continuously absorbs BTC supply from the market, serving as an important source of incremental buyers in the current market, strongly supporting prices.
(Below image: Large net transfer volume on trading platforms)
This confirms that large entities (whales) are continuously and significantly withdrawing Bitcoin from trading platforms. Their strategic accumulation behavior is still ongoing, further reducing the immediate selling pressure from centralized trading platforms and enhancing the market's long-term bullish expectations.
Comprehensive Analysis and Reasoning Logic Chain:
Starting Point - Macroeconomic Background and Market Sentiment: There are cautious expectations in the macro economy (poor data expectations), but the market has strongly priced in future rate cuts. Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has significantly warmed up, with accelerated capital inflows (macro/news front).
Verification - Demand Side Confirmation: On-chain data strongly verifies and reinforces the judgment of capital inflows and demand recovery; continuous strong net inflows into ETFs (Figure 4), active short-term traders who are already profitable (Figure 1), and increased demand for BTC and stablecoins (news front).
Verification - Core Player Behavior: On-chain data shows that core forces are extremely optimistic and taking action; whales are continuously withdrawing large amounts of coins from trading platforms (Figure 5), and the accumulation behavior of long-term holders is still proceeding at a high speed (Figure 3 - non-liquid long-term whales).
Intensifying Supply-Demand Imbalance: The demand side (ETFs, internal demand) remains strong, while the supply side (whales withdrawing coins and locking them, long-term holders continuously accumulating) is being rapidly withdrawn from the market, leading to a sharp reduction in circulating supply, and the situation of supply-demand imbalance is forming and intensifying.
Current: The market is in a healthy upward or consolidation phase awaiting a rise: short-term holders' profits reduce selling pressure (Figure 1), with strong buying support below (Figure 2 on-chain chip buy wall). Although there are selling obstacles above (Figure 2 on-chain cost sell wall), it faces strong and persistent buying power (Figure 4 ETF + Figure 5 whales + internal demand), and supply continues to tighten (Figure 3 non-liquid long-term whales).
Core Driving Force: The main driving force in the current market comes from structural supply-demand imbalance (new demand introduced by ETFs, whales, and long-term holders continuously accumulating leading to reduced supply) and strong expectations for future macro liquidity improvement (rate cuts).
Future Outlook:
• Short to Mid-term: High probability of upward fluctuations, challenging key resistance levels
◦ Strong on-chain support (Figure 2 buy wall, Figure 5 whales continuously buying) and ongoing demand injection (Figure 4 ETF inflows) will limit downside potential. Short-term holders' profits (Figure 1) reduce the risk of panic selling. The market is likely to continue testing upward, with the main challenges coming from selling resistance walls at certain profit percentages from short-term speculators, such as $101,000 or $116,000.
◦ The future market is inclined towards upward fluctuations or strong consolidation at high levels. Breaking through key resistance levels (such as $100k to $101k) is the main focus in the short term, which requires ETF inflows and whale purchases to continuously absorb selling pressure above.
◦ Pullbacks are expected to encounter strong support.
• Mid to Long-term: Supply tightening effect drives significant upward potential
◦ As long as whales continue to net withdraw (Figure 5) and non-liquid long-term whales maintain high-speed growth (Figure 3), these two core trends remain unchanged, the effect of supply tightening will become increasingly significant.
◦ Over time, fewer "active" Bitcoins will be available for trading. If macro conditions lead to expected rate cuts, improving liquidity expectations, combined with the continuous structural demand brought by ETFs (Figure 4), it may trigger a more intense "supply squeeze" market.
◦ Outlook:
The mid to long-term outlook is very optimistic. Based on the currently extremely strong on-chain fundamentals (rapid supply locking + continuous demand injection), the market is laying a solid foundation for the next significant upward trend. After breaking through key resistance levels (like $100k), the upward space is expected to open further, with the specific pace influenced by macro catalysts, but the on-chain structure points to a clear upward trend.
Mid-term Exploration
• Liquidity supply volume
• Net position of stablecoin supply
• Whale composite score model
• Structural analysis at various price levels
• Trend net position on trading platforms
(Below image: Liquidity supply volume)
The liquidity supply volume is in a state of healthy recovery, indicating that the market may be temporarily in a phase of slowly regaining momentum.
(Below image: Net position of stablecoin supply)
Purchasing power has recently seen a significant recovery, suggesting that the market is slowly accumulating momentum.
(Below image: Whale composite score model)
Whales still have a high willingness to buy and hold. During the recent overall upward trend in the market, whales have maintained a "very high" status. The current market shows a solid large group holding, which may greatly help stabilize prices. Conversely, the consistency of whale behavior can also affect the final outcome of the market.
(Below image: Structural analysis at various price levels)
From the current structure, the short-term cost around $93,000 is an important support level. Meanwhile, as the market structure evolves, the price level of the existing top is around $100,000. If purchasing power continues to increase, or if the holding willingness of the whale group does not decline, the market may have expectations of reaching the existing top. However, the current market may lean towards a complex structure of adjustment and energy accumulation. This can be seen in the image below.
(Below image: Trend net position on trading platforms)
Internally on trading platforms, there was previously a significant accumulation of BTC outflows, which has currently slowed down. However, up to now, there has been no structural change indicating inflow accumulation of potential selling pressure, suggesting that the market is still within a safe boundary of adjustment.
Short-term Observation
• Derivative risk coefficient
• Options intent transaction ratio
• Derivative transaction volume
• Implied volatility of options
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Ice sugar orange trading platform net position
• Pionex trading platform net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin trading platform net position
• Off-chain trading platform data
Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivative risk.
(Below image: Derivative risk coefficient)
After a long-awaited market short squeeze, the risk coefficient remains in the red zone. Currently, considering the risk coefficient and chip accumulation situation, the probability of further short squeezing is relatively high.
(Below image: Options intent transaction ratio)
The ratio and volume of put options have both decreased, with the current put option ratio at a medium-high level.
(Below image: Derivative transaction volume)
Derivative transaction volume is at a medium-low level.
(Below image: Implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of options has not changed significantly in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral
(Below image: Profit and loss transfer volume)
The recent market rally has led to a noticeable recovery in market sentiment (blue line), reaching short-term extreme areas. Overall, the current market remains in a calm neutral state and has not truly entered a frenzy stage.
(Below image: New addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a medium-low level. Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, BTC continues to see significant outflows, while ETH has only seen a small outflow.
(Below image: Ice sugar orange trading platform net position)
Currently, there is a significant outflow of BTC.
(Below image: Pionex trading platform net position)
On the surface, the net position of ETH on the trading platform is continuously flowing out, but in reality, observing the blue line, the net position balance of ETH on the trading platform is almost equivalent to that during the market peak in December. In the short term, the selling pressure of ETH will still persist.
(Below image: High-weight selling pressure)
No high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has seen a slight recovery, while stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
(Below image: Global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has seen a slight recovery.
(Below image: USDT trading platform net position)
Overall, stablecoin purchasing power remains flat compared to last week.
Off-chain trading data rating: This week's data website experienced a malfunction, and there is currently no off-chain trading data.
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
The market is currently in a unique phase characterized by macro cautious expectations and strong internal recovery signals in cryptocurrency, showing certain "decoupling" features. The cryptocurrency market is driven by strong ETF capital inflows, warming market sentiment, and active short-term traders, demonstrating strong endogenous momentum, seemingly trading in advance of future rate cut expectations. In the short term, this optimistic momentum is expected to continue, but caution is warranted regarding potential volatility from key macro data this week. The core driving force of the mid-term market will be the actual realization of the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. In the long term, the foundation of a structural bull market is further solidified by the current positive developments.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
The internal structure of the market is extremely healthy and strong, characterized by robust demand (continuous ETF inflows);
Core players are firmly accumulating (whales withdrawing large amounts);
Supply is rapidly locking (non-liquid long-term whales soaring);
Short-term holders have shed the pressure of losses.
• Market Tone:
The market has the ability to move upward or provide support in the short term;
In the mid to long term, the increasingly severe supply-demand imbalance is laying the groundwork for a potential "supply squeeze" market and more significant upward movements, with an overall positive outlook.
On-chain Mid-term Exploration:
Liquidity is undergoing a healthy recovery, and market momentum is gradually rising.
Purchasing power has significantly rebounded, and the market is accumulating energy for release.
Whales have a strong willingness to hold coins, currently supporting prices.
The current support level is $93,000, with an existing top at $100,000; the market is in an energy accumulation adjustment phase.
The outflow trend on trading platforms is slowing down, currently within a safe boundary of adjustment.
• Market Tone:
Adjustment, Accumulation
The market is overall in a complex structure of adjustment and accumulation, currently showing liquidity recovery, with whales willing to buy and hold, and the market remains stable.
On-chain Short-term Observations:
The risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivative risk.
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
The net position on trading platforms shows a continuous large outflow of BTC, while ETH has only seen a small outflow.
Global purchasing power has seen a slight recovery, while stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below $75,000 to $80,000 is 80%; among which, the probability of not breaking above $95,000 to $100,000 in the short term is 50%.
• Market Tone:
The market has broken through the short-term holder cost line ($93K) and has a large volume of trading chips at nearby price levels. Market sentiment and purchasing power have both seen a slight rebound. In the short term, there is a high likelihood that the market will continue to short squeeze after oscillating at the current price level, with a low risk of a pullback.
Risk Reminder: The above is for market discussion and exploration, and does not constitute directional opinions for investment; please approach with caution and be aware of potential black swan risks in the market.
This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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