Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

For years, cryptocurrency investors have viewed the four-year cycle anchored by Bitcoin's halving events as a sort of sacred roadmap. The theory suggests that every four years, Bitcoin's supply is halved, triggering a bull market, followed by a euphoric peak, then a crash, and finally a slow recovery. This cycle repeats itself.

But what if this model starts to fail? This is the point raised by on-chain analyst James Check.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check stated that in today's environment, driven by macro factors and increasing institutional influence, the neat frameworks that once defined Bitcoin market behavior are no longer as practical.

Check painted a more nuanced picture, rather than simply labeling the current market as a "bull" or "bear" market. He believes that Bitcoin is now more driven by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology, rather than predictable cycles or halving dates. As a result, the lines between bull and bear markets have become blurred.

"The world does not operate on a four-year cycle," he said. "You can imagine a headline suddenly appearing tomorrow about the cancellation of all tariffs […] and then the market starts to fluctuate. I can just as easily envision the next headline causing all risk assets to experience a significant downturn."

Check analyzed why the $70,000 to $75,000 range is a key confidence area for the Bitcoin market, and why thinking from multiple scenarios rather than a single prediction is crucial for investors' long-term success.

Feel free to watch the full interview on Cointelegraph's YouTube channel, and don't forget to subscribe!

Related: Bitcoin (BTC) ranks among the top five global assets, surpassing Google, silver, and Amazon in market capitalization.

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