In the past two years, the financial market has been relatively booming, with gold experiencing a bull market for many years, continuously reaching new highs this year. The A-shares have remained stable above 3000 points, and although this year's tariff war has caused a global asset shrinkage, the A-shares have proven to be a good safe haven, experiencing several days of significant gains, with a promising future ahead. Bitcoin, after hitting a historical high in 2024, surged to the 110,000 mark at the beginning of the new year, then saw a peak and a subsequent decline. Under the influence of various negative factors, Bitcoin tested the 74,000 mark twice, but with the recent pause in tariffs, the market has shown signs of recovery.
In February, Sister Ying consistently emphasized: short above 100,000, main short below 100,000.
In March, Sister Ying continued to stress: short above 90,000, main short below 90,000.
In the entire cryptocurrency circle, Sister Ying was the first to look towards the "7" starting with Bitcoin, and the final trend did not disappoint. It was a continuous decline, with profits rolling in, making the entire process feel like a dream.
In April, as tariffs continued to heat up, Sister Ying once again called for everyone to short, targeting the 75,000 mark below, and then positioned for a short to mid-term long at 75,000, aiming for the 82,000-84,000 area, combining short-term and mid-to-long-term strategies. Who can compete with such a dual approach?
With the pause in tariffs, Trump performed a "face-changing" act, how will the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets move next?
Before April 9, Bitcoin's overall decline was somewhat stimulated by tariffs. Additionally, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates. Currently, with both factors easing, mainstream coins and altcoins have recently experienced a rebound, rising from the recent bottom of around 74,000 to about 86,000, an increase of nearly 12,000 points in just five trading days, which is quite significant. However, the rebound does not indicate a reversal; if the market gives a little positive news, do you think the bull market has returned?
After the peak bull market in 2025, there will be no more bulls; mainstream coins will enter a bear market, and altcoins will be even worse. Not to mention how much retail investors have been washed out by the significant retracement of Bitcoin and Ethereum this year, this wave of altcoins has also left many retail investors struggling to make ends meet. It's a simple principle: before a bull market, Bitcoin must halve. This bull market started at the end of 2023, continued throughout 2024, and is still pulling in early 2025. Now? Interest rate cuts are uncertain, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains; institutional buying pressure is decreasing due to losses. What positive factors can you still expect?
Bitcoin Market Analysis:
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded after testing the 74,000 support level twice, strongly bouncing back. After stabilizing above the 83,000 mark, it continues to rise and remains above the BOLL middle track, with the overall market in an upward channel. The short-term focus is on the resistance around 85,000; if it stabilizes effectively, Bitcoin will challenge the 88,000 mark, which is a previous double resistance zone (March 24, 2025 / April 2, 2025). Below, the focus is on the support around 83,000, which is the recent dividing line between bulls and bears.
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is moving upward along two major moving averages. Even with short-term pullbacks, it still relies on the BOLL middle track to rise again, with the overall market adjusting within an upward channel. In the short term, pay attention to the BOLL upper track resistance around 86,200, while continuing to monitor the support situation around the low of 83,000 during the early morning phase.
In summary: With the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs and interest rate cuts, Sister Ying believes that even if a rebound occurs, the upward space is limited. Recently, Sister Ying has been saying that the adjustment within the 75,000-85,000 range in April has already been broken, so the next short cycle will look towards the adjustment within the 83,000-86,000 range. Both long and short operations are possible in the short term, but as long as it does not stabilize above 88,000, the short to mid-term bears will still hold the advantage.
For Ethereum, the decline from this year's high has exceeded 60%, and it has already turned into a "waste coin." Below the 2,000 mark, look for opportunities to short on rebounds.
Bitcoin Trading Suggestions:
In the morning, a short position was suggested around 85,000, targeting the 83,000-83,500 area. Currently, it can be held temporarily; if the situation changes unfavorably, one can withdraw in time. Those without positions can wait to short above 86,000.
For the downside, look to go long in the 83,000-83,300 area, targeting the 84,500-85,000 range.
Every article reflects the author's personal experiences. After encountering various friends in the cryptocurrency market over the years, their stories provide unique insights for those who have yet to meet me. Adhering to the trading philosophy of "simplicity, following the trend, avoiding greed, and executing steadily" is the path to wealth. With years of focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other spot contracts, I guide you forward using the lessons learned from the "blood" of many retail investors in the market. Follow Sister Ying to avoid getting lost; Sister Ying will help you create wealth!
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