Recently, the main theme of overseas market trading has not ended. Concerns about overseas inflation stickiness, delayed interest rate cuts, and the actual economic growth rate in the United States are still present, along with geopolitical disturbances. The short-term adjustment of gold prices may still be expected. In addition, under the trend of deglobalization, Bitcoin has unique cross-border transfer payment functions. Coupled with the impact of supply halving and the expansion of ETF issuance, the medium- to long-term asset price trend may be Bitcoin > gold > US dollar. However, in the short term, factors unfavorable to Bitcoin and gold exist under the influence of a strong US dollar pressure.
Gold: The post-adjustment gold market may still be expected
From the perspective of the main trading theme, the slow decline in inflation compared to the economic downturn has caused concerns about the stickiness of US inflation and the decline in the actual economic growth rate in the United States, as well as the delayed expectations of interest rate cuts. Looking ahead, in terms of economic data, inflation data still has stickiness, and concerns about inflation, interest rate cuts, and the actual economic growth rate may not end quickly. In terms of geopolitics, the possibility of further escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict is relatively limited. Looking ahead, the above main trading themes may continue for the next quarter or even half a year, and the post-adjustment gold market may still be expected.
Bitcoin: Unique cross-border transfer function under deglobalization
The core factors affecting Bitcoin are mainly concentrated in three aspects: global liquidity changes, risk preferences, supply and demand, and technological progress, and they present the attributes of risk assets.
In terms of global liquidity changes, Bitcoin's original design has the characteristic of avoiding the risk of currency value fluctuations, and the turning point of global liquidity has a certain leading effect on Bitcoin price trends. In terms of supply and demand and technological progress, the limited quantity determines the scarcity of Bitcoin. The rapid increase in the scale of ETF issuance on the demand side brings stable purchasing power for the subsequent bull market.
In addition, from the perspective of risk premium, industry hotspots, policy regulation, and geopolitical risks will affect price trends. Among them, geopolitical disturbances have led to concerns about cross-border transfer payments and strong regulation in financial markets, and Bitcoin has shown a temporary hedging function. In addition, Bitcoin exhibits obvious characteristics of risk assets.
Allocation value: The subsequent trend of medium- to long-term asset prices may be Bitcoin > gold > US dollar
Under the trend of deglobalization and the tight supply and demand, Bitcoin may perform better than gold, and the subsequent trend of asset prices in the medium to long term may be Bitcoin > gold > US dollar. However, in the short term, factors such as the difference in monetary policies between the US and Europe may lead to a strong US dollar, which is unfavorable to Bitcoin and gold:
First, the US dollar index may still run relatively strong in the middle of the year, but it may be difficult to present a situation similar to the significant appreciation in 2022. Under the influence of significant differences in economic fundamentals and liquidity between the US and Europe, coupled with the disturbance of the election, the US dollar index may continue to run relatively strong in the second and third quarters.
Second, for gold and Bitcoin, the similarity in their market trends is reflected in the similar global liquidity environment and the risk premium brought about by geopolitical conflicts.
Third, compared to gold, the trend of Bitcoin may be better due to the halving of supply and the growth in demand. Combining past historical experience, Bitcoin often experiences a sustained bull market after halving, and the continuous expansion of Bitcoin ETF issuance brings more incremental funds to the market. Subsequently, attention still needs to be paid to the impact of changes in Bitcoin regulation in other regions on incremental funds and risk sentiment.
Risk factors: The timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the global central bank's shift may exceed expectations; the difference in economic fundamentals between the US and non-US regions may exceed expectations; the probability of economic and financial crises in non-US regions may exceed expectations; geopolitical trends may exceed expectations; Bitcoin regulatory policies may exceed expectations.
The Ponzi scheme that you used to look down upon is slowly being unveiled, and what has landed is more precious than gold. Nowadays, the price of Bitcoin has left many people in regret! Why didn't they hoard coins back then? If you ask me if there is still a chance to enter the market now, I just want to say that you can see how high the market sentiment for Bitcoin is through the popularity of gold.
A day in the cryptocurrency circle is worth ten years in the mortal world. This is not a rumor. Only those who have experienced it firsthand know how crazy it is. In so many years in the cryptocurrency circle, I have seen all kinds of ups and downs, overnight fortunes, and overnight bankruptcies. There are still legends of various big shots in the industry. Who doesn't get hurt in the cryptocurrency circle? Aside from the lack of technical knowledge, many people simply lack luck and understanding. How many bull markets has Bitcoin experienced over the years, and how many times have you seized the opportunity?
In 2017, 2021, from the end of 2023 to now… To be honest, many friends made their first pot of gold in the cryptocurrency circle, but they didn't know when to take profits. You may have had luck, but it's useless if you don't know how to seize it. What impressed me the most was not the bull market, but the severe regulation during the bull market phase, especially in 2021 when regulation reached historic heights. I won't mention too much here, but there is one thing I must mention now, "Hong Kong's spot ETF." What concept is this? You figure it out for yourself…
Bitcoin market analysis: Last week, the funds of institutions, capital, and major retail investors were all betting on ETH. ETH took advantage and soared, especially after the spot ETF was approved. The price of ETH reached a new high, approaching the $4000 mark, and its market heat even surpassed that of BTC. What concept is this? It's a historical first. There was no such situation in 2021! The key point is that the sharp rise in ETH will drive the altcoins to soar, but this time? They remain indifferent. I also mentioned this on Weibo (Jin Yuhui, the fortune teller), so? The current market is different, and the stimulation from the news is incomparable to the past…
For BTC futures, it is not a problem to be bearish above $70,000 in the medium term. You can see for yourself that every time BTC breaks through the $70,000 mark, even rising above $72,000, it eventually comes under pressure and falls back. This time, it's the same, especially after the heat of ETH has dissipated. Market sentiment and fund flows are gradually shifting to BTC, but the price still cannot be boosted. Next, we will focus on the $68,000 mark. If it breaks below and closes below it again, we will continue to look for a pullback to the $65,000 mark next week, but there may be interim adjustments.
ETH should pay close attention to the key watershed of $3700, and SOL can trade in line with the trend of ETH. For spot traders, it is not advisable to act too hastily at the moment. Just wait patiently for the right opportunity.
Top-tier community, first-class research team
Focus on the primary and secondary cryptocurrency markets; committed to researching primary cryptocurrencies with hundredfold potential and secondary high-quality potential cryptocurrencies
No threshold, free provision of spot guidance, add V in the group: when1655
Thank you for reading, see you in the next issue.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
