Bitcoin investors may not exactly feel it, but BTC has been a relatively good bet since President Trump's tariff plans last week resulted in historic losses in traditional markets. While stocks and other mainstream investments have been falling off a cliff since the “Liberation Day” announcement April 2, bitcoin has remained relatively steady losing “only” 8% of its value.
“I think this is the most bullish 8% drawdown I’ve ever seen in bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto investment manager.
Based on historical data, you would expect bitcoin to have three times the volatility of the Nasdaq, Pandl said. And yet while the Nasdaq was down 15% at the beginning of trading April 8 (compared to April 2), bitcoin was nowhere near 45% down.
In other words, an 8% decline is a positive as historical patterns predicted a far steeper tumble.
“I think crypto investors should be extremely pleased with the modest pullback in bitcoin,” Pandl, a former analyst at Goldman Sachs, told CoinDesk.
“It reflects that tariffs — while they are a short term risk-off event for markets — are probably to be something that’s supportive for bitcoin adoption in the longer run. I think the relatively moderate drawdown reflects that,” he added.
Pandl is bullish on bitcoin in an environment where the dollar is potentially losing its place as a global reserve currency.
“Stagflation is going to be negative for stocks and bonds, and, historically, that has been positive for scarce commodities. Investors who are concerned by stagflation are looking for alternative assets that can drive returns. In traditional markets that might be gold or copper, and bitcoin,” he said.
Pandl says bitcoin’s relatively good performance reflects a rotation away from large-cap tech stocks towards commodity assets like bitcoin. You can see this in the performance of bitcoin against Roundhill “Magnificent 7 ETF.” You can now buy more of that ETF with one bitcoin compared to a week ago.
To those who subscribe to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis as a safe haven in uncertain times, the last few days have been a test case where bitcoin is winning. In theory, say these advocates, bitcoin should benefit as investors seek alternatives to dollars in times of stress.
“If you believe that the erosion of the dollar’s position is part of the bitcoin thesis, then your conviction in that thesis in the last week should have gone up,” Pandl says.
He expects bitcoin’s price to rise in the medium-term, reaching new all-time-highs this year.
“The price of bitcoin is down but conviction is up and there’s no need to change the medium term price outlook,” he said.
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