"When the tide goes out, you find out who has been swimming naked." Using this quote from Buffett to describe the current Crypto market is perhaps the best depiction. Over the past period, there have been scattered reports of individuals "leaving the circle," and these messages are more about expressing the current state of the industry rather than complaints or grievances.

As for why these individuals choose to leave the industry, I have roughly tracked a few main reasons.

Firstly, the most common reason is the dismal market conditions over the past period or the changes brought about by the market, forcing some to temporarily leave the industry in search of "new life." Secondly, Web3 has been in a somewhat undesirable "pathological" growth phase for the past couple of years, leading some value creators to exit the field because they do not see real value growth. Additionally, some have recognized the rise of AI and believe that Web3 has become a thing of the past, prompting them to pursue new blue ocean markets.

Of course, the reasons vary significantly at the individual level, but none of these reasons can transform from a part to the whole. After all, most people in the market still choose to remain observant or continue building, as this industry, which has developed for over a decade, is not facing such dilemmas for the first time.

The departure of some influential KOLs may seem to affect many people's mindsets. However, I believe that this stage is the true test for Builders. Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to see more changes in the industry or things that have yet to be changed. I will briefly discuss this from the following three aspects.

Has the Web3 industry moved from blue ocean to red ocean?

According to a research report released by BTC financial services company River in March, only 4% of the global population currently holds BTC, with the highest proportion of BTC holders in the United States, where about 14% own BTC. From a developmental stage perspective, the current BTC adoption rate is comparable to the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

From this simple data analysis, we can see that the adoption rate of digital assets, led by BTC, is still in its early stages, far from being a so-called red ocean market. Even from an industry influence perspective, traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have only just entered the scene. One must wonder, would they foolishly come in as the ones to take over?

From a logical and data analysis standpoint, we must admit that if digital assets are the future direction of development or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and AI, then the likelihood is that this race has just moved from the starting point to the midpoint, with a long way to go.

Is the Web3 market left with only flashy MEME narratives?

Certainly, for many value creators in this industry, the most criticized aspect over the past year has been the explosive popularity of MEMEs. MEMEs have attracted too much attention and have led many newcomers to experience a cleansing, even causing a loss of confidence in the industry. However, as I mentioned in a previous Weekly, MEMEs are in a state of evolution, requiring new growth after the bubble, and this growth may bring value to the industry.

Moreover, we should not only focus on superficial hot changes; builders are still building, and valuable projects are still seeking breakthroughs. By examining the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, we can see that despite a decline, the number remains relatively high.

Although the market currently appears quiet and lacks a groundbreaking narrative like DeFi from the previous cycle, looking back at the past from the present is always calm and full of opportunities, while looking forward from the present feels less certain. But isn't this the law of development and change for any phenomenon?

Even looking back at the Web3 industry in 2018, it was still extremely poor, even worse than now by several times, but this did not hinder the subsequent explosive growth. We need time and patience to wait for the process of quantitative change to qualitative change.

Will the Web3 market continue to "fall endlessly"?

Finally, we come to the issue of price. Over 90% of people feel that this cycle is very different from previous ones and lacks much similarity, so many "carving the boat to seek the sword" predictions have become cannon fodder. However, if the concept of cycles is still valid, then we are likely still within this cycle, just without the previous madness of widespread increases.

Recently, due to issues with GS, the U.S. stock market plummeted, evaporating nearly $6.5 trillion in market value in two days. The three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest two-day and weekly declines since March 2020, which also led to extreme conditions in the global financial market. Whether this volatility can improve in the short term remains to be seen cautiously.

So, when BTC has retraced nearly 30% and the financial market is facing a once-in-several-years upheaval, can the entire Crypto market remain unscathed? Perhaps this is a difficult question to answer.

However, the earliest economist, also known as the "God of Wealth," Fan Li, has a classic saying worth pondering: "When something is extremely valuable, it becomes worthless; when something is extremely cheap, it becomes valuable; when something is treated as worthless, it is taken as precious." Perhaps we are currently in a subtle moment of "seeing everything as worthless."

Will BTC eventually reach $500,000 each? Seven years ago, saying BTC would reach $1 million each sounded like a joke, but now it seems not too far off. Living in the present means facing reality, but when looking to the future, we must remain cautiously optimistic, always on the road, always building.

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