1. Market Observation

Keywords: Tariffs, ETH, BTC

After the Qingming Festival, the global financial market experienced a "Black Monday," triggered by the Trump administration's tariff policy. A recent survey by Forbes shows that 72% of heavyweight figures on Wall Street expressed disappointment with the economic strategy of the Trump team, with the tariff policy scoring only 1.86 points and cryptocurrency-related policies receiving 2.00 points. The business community reacted strongly; at the Yale CEO Summit, 44% of corporate executives stated they would collectively oppose Trump's tariff policy if the stock market fell by 20%. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, who has traditionally supported Trump, also expressed support on social media for establishing a "zero-tariff" system between the U.S. and Europe, seemingly distancing himself from the White House's trade war stance.

Market panic spread, triggering circuit breakers in several Asian markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell more than 8% at one point, the South Korean KOSPI index dropped over 5%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index plummeted over 9%, triggering a circuit breaker. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3100 points, with over 1000 stocks hitting the daily limit down. As risk aversion intensified, gold fell below $3000 this morning but rebounded to above $3050, resulting in a simultaneous rise in gold, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury bonds. Notably, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month and indicated that there is ample room for adjustment in monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.

The cryptocurrency market was also not spared, with Bitcoin dropping 7.2% during the day, falling below $78,000, and Ethereum plummeting 15%, dropping below $1550. Additionally, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.02, hitting a new low since February 2020. However, analysts hold differing views on the future development of mainstream cryptocurrencies. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, predicts that BTC could reach $132,000 this year based on the M2 money supply growth model; crypto analyst Miles Deutscher believes the eventual rebound will be stronger than before, expecting Bitcoin to hit new highs between the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026. In contrast, Andrew Kang, a partner at Mechanism Capital, holds a pessimistic view on Ethereum, predicting that ETH may return to the $1000-$1500 range.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued an important statement regarding stablecoins, clarifying that certain types of crypto assets (i.e., "Covered Stablecoins") do not fall under the category of securities. These stablecoins must maintain a 1:1 exchange ratio with the dollar and be backed by low-risk, highly liquid assets. Meanwhile, the White House has requested that federal agencies report their cryptocurrency holdings to the Treasury Secretary, but has not mandated the public disclosure of audit results.

On the macroeconomic front, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that tariff policies would drive up inflation and suppress economic growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.5% and raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of interest rate cuts in June this year; if the U.S. avoids a recession, the Fed may cut rates three times by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%-3.75%. However, if the economy falls into recession, the Fed may cut rates by about 200 basis points next year. In the face of economic downward pressure, Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," advises investors to turn to hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin to prepare for a potential economic crisis.

2. Key Data (As of April 7, 13:30 HKT)

(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $77,267.21 (Year-to-date -17.53%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $4.5352 billion

• Ethereum: $1,537.97 (Year-to-date -53.78%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $2.8761 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 25 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 1.7 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 62.7%, ETH 7.6%

• Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, AERGO, SOL

• 24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9794

• Sector Performance: The cryptocurrency market saw widespread declines, with the Meme sector down 14.23% and the AI sector down 13.52%

• 24-Hour Liquidation Data: A total of 320,432 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $986 million, including $328 million in BTC and $293 million in ETH

• BTC Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($84,111.92), Lower line ($82,446.34)

• ETH Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($1,822.26), Lower line ($1,786.17)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (As of April 4, EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$64.88 million

• Ethereum ETF: $2.06 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens, valued at approximately $24.8 million

• OKX will delist MAX/USDT, KISHU/USDT, 1INCH/USD, and GRT/USD perpetual contracts on April 8

• Paris Blockchain Week 2025

• Tensor (TNSR) will unlock 126 million tokens on April 8, valued at approximately $20.6 million

• Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock 1.45 million tokens, valued at approximately $22.7 million

• Binance will suspend Syscoin deposits and withdrawals on April 8 to support its network upgrade

Today's Top 500 Largest Market Cap Declines: 0x0.ai (0x0) down 30.20%, Safe (SAFE) down 23.76%, Artificial Liquid Intelligence (ALI) down 22.94%, PAAL AI (PAAL) down 22.40%, Berachain (BERA) down 21.75%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as CHEEL, APT, SAGA will see large unlocks, with CHEEL unlocking approximately $161 million

• This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: CPI Will Make It "Difficult" for the Federal Reserve, and the Dollar Index May Fall into a Plunge

• Aave's cumulative borrowing interest on the Ethereum network surpasses $1 billion

• Nikkei 225 index declines expand to 8.4%

• Liquidation of 67,500 ETH whale positions triggers a chain reaction of declines

• U.S. federal agencies must report cryptocurrency holdings to the Treasury Secretary, audit results may not be made public

• Nasdaq futures drop over 5.5%, S&P 500 index futures fall over 4.7%

• BTC falls below $78,000, down 5.60% for the day

• ETH falls below $1,600, down 9.45% for the day

• U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo: Tariffs will take effect on April 9, there will be no delay

• Analyst: 91,900 BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the past month

• Mechanism Capital partner: The likelihood of ETH returning to the $1,000-$1,500 range this year seems high

• Trump suggests he "deliberately" triggered the stock market crash, calls on Americans to "be patient"

• Web3 social application Phaver has ceased operations, its token price has dropped 99% since TGE

• The world's top 500 billionaires lost a net worth of $536 billion during this week's U.S. stock market crash, setting a historical record

• Analyst: Bitcoin is still expected to hit new highs between the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026

• Lens Chain mainnet has been launched

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