Trump officially launches reciprocal tariffs against 185 countries, U.S. stock futures and the crypto market decline, with BTC retreating from $88,500

Written on April 3, delayed publication.

Macroeconomic Interpretation: As the Trump administration's tariff hammer strikes the global economic chessboard, this "benchmark tariff + one country, one tax" combination punch affecting 185 countries not only causes the Japanese and South Korean stock markets to tumble but also stirs up waves in the crypto world. This economic "seven-injury fist" injures the enemy while inflicting self-harm, unexpectedly revealing Bitcoin's transformation into a new type of safe-haven asset.

Global economies are trapped in a "tariff werewolf game" dilemma. The warning from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is not alarmist; if the U.S. insists on its tariff strategy, UBS models indicate that U.S. inflation could soar to the 5% warning line. The awakening of this "inflation monster" puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma—balancing the need to soothe an economy battered by tariffs while taming runaway prices. While traditional financial market players are still debating the timing of interest rate cuts, the crypto market has keenly sensed a shift in the direction of capital flows. The moment the U.S. dollar index fell below 102, Bitcoin circled around $83,000 like a shark sensing blood, ready to strike.

The entry of institutional players is rewriting the rules of the game. Fidelity analysts' "base price theory of $110,000" is not baseless; from ABCDE Capital's monthly million-dollar investments to traditional asset management giants' assessments of Bitcoin's acceleration phase, smart money is quietly positioning itself along the web of blockchain. This institutionalization process brings not only capital volume but also a reconstruction of market volatility cycles— as the correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stock futures strengthens, we are witnessing the quantum entanglement of digital gold and traditional risk assets.

However, the cold light of regulatory swords casts a shadow over the market. The "Stablecoin Transparency Act" promoted by the U.S. House of Representatives looms like the sword of Damocles; although its dual-track design of "reserves + anti-money laundering" injects compliance genes into the market, the specter of policy uncertainty still lingers. The struggle between this regulatory "tightening spell" and the innovative "cloud somersault" is akin to a necessary tribulation in the growth of the crypto market. Interestingly, while crypto stocks like Coinbase collectively "dive" in pre-market trading, Bitcoin demonstrates remarkable resilience under pressure, suggesting a confidence vote in the underlying technology.

On this dramatically tense market stage, Bitcoin is performing a splendid act of "metamorphosis." From its initial role as a risk asset spokesperson to now revealing its safe-haven sharpness under the shadow of inflation, this identity transformation resembles the protagonist in a martial arts novel who opens the meridians. As the tariff war triggers a butterfly effect on global supply chains and the dollar's hegemony faces challenges from decentralized technologies, Bitcoin may be evolving into an "economic shock absorber" of the digital age. However, investors should remain vigilant; this arena is never short of plot twists—the regulatory sword of Damocles, geopolitical "black swans," and algorithmic stablecoin "vampire attacks" could all cause the seemingly solid narrative fortress to collapse in an instant.

The crypto market is undergoing a difficult transformation from a wild frontier to an establishment faction. When the hurricane of traditional finance collides with the tsunami of blockchain, this epic capital game may redefine the wealth distribution rules of the 21st century. For ordinary investors, when the bullets of tariffs are flying, the best strategy is to fasten your seatbelt while not forgetting to keep a Bitcoin in your digital wallet—after all, in this uncertain era, sometimes code is more trustworthy than promises.

Data Analysis:

TRUMP's reciprocal tariffs exceed market expectations, U.S. stock futures and the crypto market decline. Coinank data shows #BTC has dropped from $88,500 to around $82,137. The U.S. dollar index #DXY has fallen below 102 for the first time since last October.

We believe that the market turbulence triggered by Trump's reciprocal tariff policy reveals a new role for crypto assets in pricing political risk. The short-term transmission path exhibits three characteristics:

First, the distortion of safe-haven logic. Traditionally, tariff escalations benefit safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar, but this time, with DXY falling below 102 (a new low since last October) and BTC dropping simultaneously, it reflects market concerns that the policy will exacerbate stagflation risks, triggering a triple whammy for stocks, bonds, and currencies. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has strengthened in the short term (30-day coefficient of 0.78), undermining its "digital gold" narrative.

Second, the liquidity siphoning effect. The decline in U.S. stock futures (Nasdaq -2.1%) far exceeds that of the crypto market (BTC -7.2%), suggesting that institutions may prioritize selling high-liquidity assets to secure margin, causing Bitcoin to become a source of liquidity supplementation. On-chain data shows that whales have increased their holdings of 12,000 BTC around $82,000 against the trend, possibly laying the groundwork for a short-term rebound.

Third, the policy expectation game. The tariff shock may accelerate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process (with the probability of a cut in September rising to 68%), and the divergence formed by a weaker dollar and shifting interest rate expectations may reconstruct the valuation logic of crypto assets. Historical data shows that after similar macro disturbances, Bitcoin rebounds an average of 14% within 15 days, but it needs to break through the $88,500 liquidation zone (with $8.1 billion in short positions) to confirm a trend reversal.

The current market is in a game window of "policy shock digestion" and "loose expectation pricing." It is advisable to pay attention to two types of signals: first, whether the actual yield on U.S. Treasuries can retreat from the high of 2.4%, alleviating valuation pressure on risk assets; second, changes in Bitcoin miners' holdings (currently holding 1.84 million BTC). If there is no large-scale selling, a deep correction may serve as a washout in the bull market.

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